CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn stuck in place ahead of USDA data

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Soybean and corn markets at the Chicago Board of Trade are trading in tight ranges ahead of key data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

But increased global demand for U.S. commodities could underpin prices going forward, one U.S. analyst says.

Soybeans – “We’re all just waiting,” said Scott Capinegro of Chicago-based HighGround Trading Group.

USDA is due to release crop production, world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) and world agricultural production reports on Friday.

The average trade estimate for soybean yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, Capinegro said.

Soybeans were underpinned by strong demand on the week, a trend he expected to continue.

“We’re going to be the only game in town, for right now until our harvest picks up,” he said.

Soybean prices have gained 15 cents per bushel in the September contract, and 26.75 cents per bushel in the November contract in the week ending Wednesday (all figures US$).

“How high it could go is anybody’s guess. August is the month for soybeans,” Capinegro said.

Corn – Capinegro expected the average corn yield to reach about 170.6 bushels per acre.

“It’s hard to say what the USDA is going to say with yields, but we’re going to get a better handle on ending stocks,” he said.

Corn prices are likely to move sideways in coming weeks as a downtrend in the grain market offsets bullish features.

Strong demand and falling crop conditions are keeping corn prices afloat, Capinegro said.

The most recent crop conditions report from USDA showed a two per cent drop in the good to excellent category, leaving the total at 74 per cent.

“It’s not shocking, but there will be guys out there telling you corn’s not filling the kernels because it’s been hot and now it’s dry,” he said.

Corn prices lost 2.5 cents per bushel in the September contract and two cents in the December contract in the week ending Wednesday.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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