CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn hold in trading range

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Supply and demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture held few surprises and had only limited effects on Chicago Board of Trade corn and soybeans — both rangebound in the short term, according to one U.S.-based analyst.

“That report was pretty non-eventful right now,” said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers.

USDA left its projection for domestic soybean inventories steady, estimating inventories at 465 million bushels at the end of the 2015-16 season. U.S. corn inventory projections were adjusted slightly, rising 25 million bushels, to 1.785 billion.

Capinegro said he expects corn and soybeans to stay in a tight trading range throughout December.

“There’s no news; the market should hold pretty steady at these levels.”

There may be a slight market reaction when Argentina’s new president takes office Thursday, Capinegro added.

Mauricio Macri has said he will remove Argentina’s export taxes on corn, and reduce taxes on beans — but since the market has known that for a while, Capinegro said he expects the effects to be limited.

Since last week, corn has gained 7.75 cents per bushel in the January contract and 15.25 cents per bushel in the March contract (all figures US$).

“It looks like the grains want to be a little sideways to firmer,” Capinegro said.

Since last week, soybeans lost 15.5 cents per bushel in the January contract, and 15.25 cents per bushel in the March contract.

Traders are looking to a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision for market direction moving forward, Capinegro said.

“Will they raise interest rates? Won’t they? And we have to see how all the markets react to that. All the outside markets.”

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting takes place Dec. 15 and 16.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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