CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy move on weather, interest from China

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada –– It’s a game of follow-the-leader in corn and soybean markets at the Chicago Board of Trade, according to one analyst — and short-term, neither looks especially bullish.

“Beans have been the leader, corn is the follower, because we’re getting into the teeth of harvest,” said Scott Capinegro, senior broker for HighGround Trading Group.

Soybeans have been getting some support — though limited — from increased sales to China.

China has been a strong buyer of beans as the country’s reserves are depleting, and analysts expect demand to stay.

If beans see a rally, they could move to $9.26 in the November contract; from there they’ll see resistance (all figures US$).

“The upside to me is kind of limited right now, with the rally that we’ve had. You know farmers are holding onto corn and beans, but they do need to get some cash flow so there is some selling,” Capinegro said.

If weather issues in the U.S. are limited, November soybeans could test $8.65, Capinegro said, adding that they could go as low as $8.50.

“I think you’re really playing with fire if you buy into the rallies, because they can get you.”

Since last week, soybeans posted gains of 19.5 cents per bushel and 19.25 cents per bushel in the November and January contracts.

Corn will have a hard time seeing any type of rally, Capinegro said. “You’re going to need a lot of cards to fall in place.”

The bull news in the grain market is continued dryness in Australia, Ukraine and Russia. Other than that, corn is stuck in a “boring tight range.”

Corn could move to test a four-week low of US$3.75 as it feels pressure from wheat.

“The problem with wheat is, it’s a weed, and every time someone mentions the word rain, down we go.”

Since last week, corn lost 16.75 cents per bushel in the December contract and 16.5 in the March contract.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.


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