CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy futures maintain status quo

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have kept rangebound this week with little excitement.

During the week ended Wednesday the December corn contract rose slightly, by 2.5 cents, to $3.51 per bushel (all figures US$). The dominant November contract for soybeans fell 3.25 cents, to $9.9675 per bushel.

“We’ve got decent weather over the next week or two in order to really pick up on (corn) harvest, that is giving us a little bit of pressure here today,” said Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report, released Monday, showed the U.S. corn harvest 38 per cent complete, compared to the average of 59 per cent.

Every day for the last nine days, corn has hit $3.50 and hasn’t been able to move much, due to a combination of harvest continuing and December futures trading, Georgy said.

“It’s back and forth, $3.50, and you have got this pile of money that is sitting on a short side of the market that has already sold it… and that’s what had corn rallying in the last three days.”

The market being where it’s at is an advantage to farmers, according to Georgy.

“It gives an opportunity for farmers out there in order to make sales at prices where probably (they) shouldn’t be there right now,” he said.

Georgy suspects the markets will hang out around the $3.50 mark for the rest of the week.

Attention in the soybean trade is focused on South America, where Brazil has been receiving much-needed rains. With earlier dry weather and progress now stalled due to rain, soybean seeding is behind schedule this year.

“Beans are extremely rangebound. You move anywhere 10 to 20 cents lower from here you’ll find support, just as if you move 10 to 20 cents higher from here you’ll find some selling as well,” Georgy said.

Soybean exports are also behind USDA’s expected demand, according to Georgy.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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