CBOT weekly outlook: Corn has upside potential, soy rangebound

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada –– Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are moving based on demand, which indicates corn will move higher while soybeans stay steady, according to a U.S.-based analyst.

Traders are looking to the next U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report, due out Wednesday (Dec. 9), according to Terry Reilly, senior agriculture futures analyst at Futures International LLC.

“Traders will also be watching weather down in South America, and also over in Ukraine and Russia, and especially global demand for commodities,” he said.

CBOT corn has upside potential based on strong industrial use of corn for ethanol, Reilly said, adding that the market expects a pickup in U.S. corn exports.

“Technically we’re set to move higher.”

Importers have been taking advantage of low prices, and Reilly said he expects data reflecting that to push corn up short-term to $3.78-$3.80 a bushel in the March contract (all figures US$).

Since last week, corn has lost two cents per bushel in the March contract and 2.5 cents per bushel in the May contract.

But soybeans are likely to stay rangebound despite a strong U.S. crush report.

“U.S. crushers are not slowing down on crushing beans, but there’s still plenty of product out there,” Reilly said.

He said he expects the March contract to hover around $8.80-$9, short-term. “It will likely stay steady throughout the week.”

Since last week, soybeans have gained 17 cents per bushel in the January contract and 17.25 cents per bushel in the March contract.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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