Ag Canada tightens grain/oilseed stocks projections

CNS — Ending stocks of Canada’s major grains and oilseeds at the close of the upcoming 2014/15 (Jul/Nov) crop year will be tighter than earlier projections, according to updated supply/demand tables released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis branch on July 22. The latest tables take into account the latest acreage estimates released by Statistics Canada on June 27.

Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 12.285 million tonnes by the end of the 2014/15 crop year, which is down from the June estimate of 16.345 million. Some of the biggest adjustments were in wheat, corn, and canola.

Total expected grain and oilseed ending stocks for the current 2013/14 crop year, at 20.925 million tonnes, were down slightly from the previous forecast of 21.160 million tonnes. Carryout in 2012/13 was only 8.951 million tonnes.

The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.

Ag Canada forecast total grain and oilseed production in 2014/15 at 71.169 million tonnes, which was down from the June estimate of 74.760 and below the 90.083 million tonnes grown in 2013/14.

Projected exports of the major grains and oilseeds in Canada during 2014/15 were revised higher to 41.625 million tonnes, which compares with the June estimate of 40.675 million and a forecast of 40.103 million for 2013/14.

Total domestic usage of the various grains and oilseeds for the 2014/15 crop year was revised to 39.245 million tonnes, from 39.851 million tonnes in June. That compares with the 2013/14 forecast of 39.128 million tonnes.

Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.


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