As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

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The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

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“Crude oil is going to be a big driver in this environment and therefore (soyoil), but there’s a lot of political stuff too,” Derwin said.

Along with the Middle East war, Derwin pointed to coming renewable fuel and biodiesel policies in the United States and the renegotiating of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled on March 27 to announce the latest renewable fuel proposals coming from the Environmental Protection Agency. Meanwhile the review process for CUSMA is already underway.

Derwin said it’s important to protect oneself from possible wide swings in canola, which could range from C$600 to C$800 per tonne.

“It’s more of what happens if it goes to either one of those places,” Derwin said. “You don’t want to lock in too much in case of production concerns. There’s some big swing potential here.”

Added to that is the forthcoming canola crop.

“We’re a little bit early where any kind of seeding concerns or weather-driven concerns come into play,” he said, emphasizing that could change in the coming weeks and months.

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The finding addresses a question that has surfaced in U.S. research and among Prairie growers managing high-pH soils: does choosing a low IDC score come at the cost of yield where chlorosis is not present?

“We didn’t know the answer to this question until just now,” U of M researcher Kristen MacMillan said during a presentation at Ag Days in Brandon.

WHY IT MATTERS: Understanding how variety selection affects yield helps farmers make more confident decisions in challenging soil conditions.

“It’s a highly visual condition,” said MacMillan, who is also Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers’ agronomist in residence.

“We’re choosing varieties based on their visual response, but what is the actual yield correlation to that?”

IDC is a common issue in calcareous, high-pH soils, where iron becomes chemically unavailable to the plant.

The condition causes yellowing between the veins of young soybean leaves, typically appearing in patches and lasting from mid-June into July. While symptoms may only persist for a few weeks, early-season stress can reduce yield potential.

How much yield does IDC cost?

To understand how IDC severity translates into yield loss, MacMillan collaborated with Manitoba Agriculture to analyze six years of data from single-row plots rated annually for IDC response near Winnipeg. Those plots were taken through to harvest to compare visual scores with final yield.

The analysis confirmed that yield declines as IDC scores increase in affected areas.

MacMillan reported a yield loss of roughly 1.5 to 2.8 bushels per acre for every one-point increase in IDC score. In practical terms, a two-point difference between varieties could mean a three- to six-bushel swing in IDC-prone zones.

Is there a yield trade-off?

The more pressing question, however, was whether selecting for low IDC scores sacrifices yield elsewhere in the field.

Many growers report IDC often affects only portions of a field, yet variety decisions are made for the entire field. Research in North Dakota and South Dakota has identified yield trade-offs in some soybean populations, where selecting for IDC tolerance reduced yield under non-IDC conditions.

To test whether that trade-off exists under Manitoba conditions, MacMillan established paired trials in IDC and non-IDC areas of the same field using identical varieties. She also identified a common set of varieties grown over three years to ensure consistency in comparisons.

“What we’re finding is that yield is also negatively correlated with IDC score or not related at all. So this is good news,” she said.

In other words, varieties with strong IDC tolerance performed well in affected areas without yielding less in unaffected parts of the field.

MacMillan also examined whether precision-planting different cultivars in IDC and non-IDC zones would provide an advantage.

Because no yield penalty was detected, splitting varieties within a field offered little benefit in most scenarios. Only in fields almost entirely affected by IDC did a particularly strong cultivar show a measurable advantage.

“If IDC is a constraint in your fields, continue choosing varieties with low IDC score and high yield,” she said.

For growers managing high-carbonate Prairie soils, the data reinforce current practice: selecting IDC-tolerant varieties remains the most reliable defence without sacrificing yield potential where chlorosis never appears.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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While the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand, StatCan didn’t include any soybean crush data for 2025 due to confidentiality requirements under the Statistics Act.

Canola

Canadian canola crushers took in more than 11.55 million tonnes of the oilseed last year, compared to the five-year average of 10.16 million. In the U.S., which has a far smaller canola crop to work with, its crush came to 2.02 million tonnes, a little more than the average of 1.98 million.

Soybeans

At more than 60 million tonnes, the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand with it far exceeding its five-year averages for seed, oil and meal. For the Canadian crush, it was receding from recent highs in 2022.

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Dennis Lange, industry development pulses specialist for Manitoba Ag, said in a March 10 interview that any such changes “would be an option for somebody who hasn’t had fertilizer plans set up already.” Lange said if there were to be any alterations, the most likely crops to change to would be soybeans and pulses.

Fertilizer, crude oil prices rise

Fertilizer prices have spiked, following sharp hikes in crude oil prices that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The day before, urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about US$442 per tonne in the nearby contracts. By March 3, urea hit US$590 and closed March 10 at US$585.

In comparison, the April contract for West Texas Intermediate jumped from US$67 per barrel on Feb. 27, to almost US$95 six days later. On March 9, WTI topped out at more than US$119/barrel before closing at around US$83.50.

Fall fertilizer

Lange said Manitoba farmers managed to get down a good amount of fertilizer in the fall after a number of extensions to the application deadline following frequent rains.

“For now, I don’t foresee any big swings because there was a fair bit of fertilizer that went down last fall, on the nitrogen side anyways,” Lange said.

He added that growers will likely keep to their crop rotations and give consideration to weed issues, especially when it comes to planting peas.

“It’s the status quo for the most part, but if there’s unseeded acres or unplanned acres, that might be a shift to the crop set that might be more economical,” Lange said.

StatCan forecast

On March 5, Statistics Canada issued its planted area projections for 2026/27 and forecast less pulse acres for Manitoba while soybeans are to increase.

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Based on interviews by Glacier FarmMedia, the general outlook is for more planted acres devoted to canola, spring wheat, barley and oats. Then expectations are for less durum, corn, soybeans, lentils and peas going into the ground.

Canada-China trade deal

Of note, the StatCan report will be based on farmer surveys conducted in December. That was before Canada and China reached their tariff deal that has eliminated or slashed levies on China’s imports of Canadian canola seed and meal, as well as other products.

Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodities said farmers were very likely planning to seed more canola this year anyways.

“Prior to the China trade deal, canola was penciling out better than a lot of other crops,” Driedger said, noting that agronomics may limit how much farmers can plant of each crop.

John DePape of Farm Co. projected 22.50 million acres of canola to be planted in 2026/27, suggesting that “would be on the lower side.”

Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital said he expects Canadian farmers to revert to their more traditional plantings, which would see larger crops such as canola and spring wheat, while there’s likely to be less durum planted. Klassen said a good amount of durum was seeded last year in areas that traditionally grow very little of it.

He concurred that more canola will be planted in 2026/27 because it offers the best returns.

Pulses, cereals

For pulses, Klassen said less acres will be allocated to them due to their large ending stocks, especially for lentils and peas.

Klassen added that high fertilizer prices and supply shortages of it could affect farmers’ planting decisions, especially in Manitoba and Ontario.

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The practice is commonly treated as a get-it-done-early job, with fields rolled soon after seeding to push down stones and smooth the surface.

Extension guidance for post-emergence rolling has typically urged caution, often pointing to the first trifoliate stage as a safer window while also emphasizing the role of soil and weather conditions.

WHY IT MATTERS: Risk of yield loss from bent and broken plants is one thing, but risk of damage from squashing your soil should also be considered.

However, an ongoing study from the University of Manitoba is taking a stage-by-stage look at how that risk develops. The work is helping define the post-emergence window more clearly, showing low risk early and rising damage if rolling is delayed.

A multi-year study led by U of M researcher Kristen MacMillan, with support from Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers, tested rolling soybeans across a wide range of crop stages, from post-seeding through flowering, to better understand where that flexibility ends.

The results show a clear window where post-emergence rolling causes little damage and no yield loss — and a sharp line where risk rises quickly.

Rolling is standard practice on many soybean farms, particularly on stony ground. The goal is to protect low-hanging soybean pods and reduce harvest losses by smoothing the seedbed.

However, MacMillan said rolling can also create unintended soil problems.

“We’re crushing those soil aggregates,” she said.

“We’re dispersing them into very fine particles.”

That can lead to surface sealing and poor infiltration during rainfall events, a problem in years when moisture is already limited. It can also increase the risk of wind erosion, especially on finely worked ground.

Those risks prompted the team to ask a simple question: if rolling has downsides, how long can growers safely delay it?

The study compared an unrolled check with rolling at multiple soybean stages: post-seeding, emergence, cotyledon, unifoliate, V1–V2, V3–V4 and flowering.

Rolling was also done under different conditions, including warm, sunny days and cooler, cloudy ones, when plants are more brittle. The roller used in the trial was slightly heavier than most commercial rollers, creating a conservative test.

At the cotyledon stage, damage was minimal.

“Only about one per cent of the plants in the plot were broken,” MacMillan said.

“This was really surprising.”

She noted that the seed furrow plays an important protective role early on. Plants emerging within the furrow were often shielded from the roller, while damage was more likely where the furrow was flattened by tractor tires.

At the unifoliate and early trifoliate stages, results were similar. Plant breakage remained low — generally less than three per cent early, and still less than 10 per cent through V2 — with no yield loss observed.

“Plants were bouncing back very nicely,” she said.

As soybeans advanced toward V3 and V4, damage increased sharply, with tire tracks playing a big role in plant breakage.

By the third to fourth trifoliate stage, about 17 per cent of plants were broken overall. Within tire tracks, damage climbed to 24 per cent, compared with about nine per cent in undriven rows.

“More than double most of the plant damage is happening from the tire tracks,” MacMillan said.

Yield losses followed the same pattern, increasing as rolling was pushed later into the season.

At flowering, results were unequivocal. Nearly half of all plants were broken when rolled at R1, with severe stem damage visible immediately after the pass.

“That was really late,” MacMillan said.

“Those plants did not look happy.”

Based on two years of data so far, the study points to a practical takeaway: growers have roughly a two- to three-week window after emergence where rolling can still be done safely.

Under Prairie conditions, that typically means the first three weeks of June, when soybeans range from unfolded cotyledons through V2.

Rolling beyond that point carries rising risk, especially once soybeans reach the third trifoliate stage and tractor tire damage becomes unavoidable.

MacMillan said the work is ongoing, with one more year of data still to come. However, the pattern has been consistent.

“There is a window,” she said.

“They can be rolled post-emergence, and that can help reduce those soil impacts.”

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It’s quite common for the USDA’s various attachés worldwide to come up with different calculations than those from the department. Overall, the Buenos Aires desk was not too different from the USDA’s numbers, but there were a few exceptions.

February rains bolster crops

The attaché placed harvested area for soybeans to be 15.80 million hectares compared to 16.50 million from the USDA. Yields differed as well, with the attaché at 3.04 tonnes per hectare versus 2.94 by the department.

The attaché noted that Argentina experienced a drier than normal January, but the country received sufficient rain earlier this month to bolster its crops.

Imports, crush

While the USDA pegged Argentine soybean imports at 7.80 million tonnes, its Buenos Aires desk came in lower at seven million, due to the crush increasing from 42 million tonnes in 2024/25.

Both were close on Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean crush, with the attaché at 43 million tonnes and the USDA at 42.50 million.

Exports, carryover

One notable difference was in Argentina’s exports, with the USDA at 4.60 million tonnes and the attaché estimating six million. There was also a notable gap in feed, waste and domestic consumption with USDA at 7.20 million tonnes versus 5.50 million by the attaché.

That also led to a sizeable distance in ending stocks, with the USDA projecting 5.86 million tonnes at the Buenos Aires desk at 4.35 million.

Sunflowers, peanuts

For sunflower seeds, the attaché estimated Argentina’s production for 2025/26 at 5.80 million tonnes and ending stocks of 857,000 tonnes. The USDA calls were 5.50 million and 914,000 tonnes, respectively.

The Buenos Aires desk placed Argentina’s peanut production at 1.44 million tonnes compared to 1.50 million by the USDA. There was a wide difference in the carryover, with the attaché at 985,000 tonnes versus 473,000 by the USDA.

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