The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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“Right now in South America, I have a corn crop being equal to last year. In my gut, I think it’s going to be below last year when the safrinha crop is finally harvested,” he said.

Issues with safrinha corn

Although that second Brazil corn crop is more than 91 per cent planted, Cordonnier pointed out there are more than 3.21 million acres still needing to be seeded and stressed the main planting window has closed with dry weather ahead.

“Planting (corn) at this point is very risky. They’ll run out of moisture before the crop has a chance to mature,” he said. “They’re already worried about the dry weather in the state of Paraná.”

Cordonnier said Brazil’s first corn crop is more than halfway harvested, but about 20 points behind this time last year. He said that isn’t too much of a concern.

He recently cut his call on Brazilian corn production this year to 133 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 135 million. That compares with the United States Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 132 million tonnes and 138.3 million tonnes by Brazil’s Conab.

Argentina corn

As for corn crop in Argentina, Cordonnier said about nine per cent has been combined and the average yield is about 131 bushels per acre.

“They’re harvesting the best part right now,” he said, noting that yields will likely decline as combining progresses.

Dry conditions in parts of Argentina created a wide gap in yields, from as little as 40 bu./ac. to as much as 200. Cordonnier said more recent rainfall has stabilized Argentina’s corn.

Soybeans

As for soybeans, Cordonnier said Brazil remains on pace to produce its biggest crop on record. However, it likely won’t be as large as initially expected.

The Brazil soybean harvest was about 61 per cent finished, nine points behind last year.

“It’s on the slow side. That’s because heavy rains continue to fall across northern Brazil,” Cordonnier said.

In southern Brazil, such as Rio Grande do Sul, soybeans were planted late due to drought and that state’s harvest is barely underway, Cordonnier said.

Aside from a very small amount of fields, the soybean harvest had yet to start in Argentina, he added, projecting yields of about 56 bu./ac. in the country’s core soybean-growing area.

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Manitoba corn growers have long relied on weed-management research from Ontario or the U.S. Midwest, even though growing conditions rarely match what farmers see in their own fields.

A new set of trials by U of M researcher Loveleen Kaur Dhillon is set to change that.

WHY IT MATTERS: With most corn-based weed guidance borrowed from other regions, Manitoba growers need local research to fine-tune their spray timing.

Dhillon is in her first year as the university’s agronomist-in-residence (special crops), a five-year applied research role funded through the Manitoba Crop Alliance (MCA).

The position covers three “special crops” as defined by the program — corn, sunflower and flax — which are considered special because of their relatively low acres in the province, despite their potential.

Coming into the role with agronomy and plant breeding training, Dhillon said that aside from corn, which she had worked with during her master’s research in India, everything else was a fresh start.

She admitted she was nervous early on but settled in quickly once fieldwork began and she could see how producer-driven the program would be, allowing her to focus on basic, but essential, agronomy questions.

“I get to work on all those fun projects,” she said.

That farmer-facing element is central to how she sees her role.

Dhillon said the MCA partnership gives her a clear sense of grower priorities and helps her shape the work around what producers want studied.

Among this year’s work were two corn studies conducted at three Manitoba sites: Carman, Melita and Arborg.

In the first study, Dhillon used three widely grown hybrids and planted them on different dates to see whether adjusting seeding windows might influence how corn fits into the province’s shorter warm period.

The second study focused on the critical weed-free period, which is the window before early-season competition starts to cut into yield. Dhillon wanted to see how U.S. and Ontario recommendations hold up under Manitoba conditions.

She divided the work into two complementary approaches: one that let weeds grow for set periods before removal, and one that held plots weed-free for set periods before allowing weeds back in.

She said the work is also meant to help growers spray only when it matters most, making weed control more efficient, cost-effective and sustainable over the long term.

A season of contrasts

The three sites offered three distinct pictures of the growing season.

Melita had favourable weather, giving clean comparisons across weed-removal timings.

Carman had heavy weed pressure, which made the contrasts more obvious, even visible from the field edge and in drone images.

Arborg, however, was dry for much of the season, and the crop there looked very different from the other sites. Weed density and species composition also shifted under drought, which changed how the competition played out.

Dhillon said that although the conditions were challenging, the variation itself added value. Each site contributed a different piece of the puzzle, helping her understand how Manitoba’s range of environments might influence weed timing.

She hasn’t analyzed the data yet and won’t make recommendations until she has accumulated more site-years. Even so, based on differences seen in the field, Manitoba conditions don’t appear to mirror the conditions on which U.S. and Ontario recommendations are based.

Farmers who have managed corn here for years already know some of those discrepancies from experience; Dhillon’s first-year observations simply reinforce that Manitoba’s conditions deserve Manitoba-made research.

With more data coming next year, and with all three special crops under her long-term mandate, Dhillon said she hopes to give growers clear, locally grounded guidance they can use in their day-to-day decisions.

For now, she has something just as important: proof of concept that the province’s unique conditions behave differently enough to justify a made-in-Manitoba approach — and the beginnings of a program built to deliver it.

“The differences are quite clear,” said Dhillon.

“The protocol and the design of the experiment really worked.”

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“The only strong bids out there are the line companies for export,” Beusekom said. “The feed guys are more or less flat.”

“The line companies are bidding farmers aggressively … for export,” he continued, adding that feedlot alley doesn’t need to look very far for enough barley or wheat.

In about a 100-kilometre radius, “they have a lot of local supply around them”, Beusekom noted. “In this crop year, they have not had to get aggressive looking for grain.”

He said the feedlots have bought about 95 per cent of the amount of barley and wheat they purchased this time last year, even with fewer cattle.

“They don’t have to move the market to get that supply.”

Feed prices

Beusekom said feed barley was about C$265 to C$270 per tonne delivered Lethbridge. Wheat and corn were around approximately C$270 to C$275 per tonne delivered Lethbridge, with corn keeping barley from going higher.

Prairie Ag Hotwire cited feed barley in Alberta at C$4.79 to C$5.99 per bushel delivered as of Feb. 18, up 11 cents on the week. Saskatchewan was unchanged at C$4.90 to C$5/bu. delivered, while Manitoba nudged up one cent at C$4.60 to C$4.62.

For feed wheat, PAH listed an 11-cent increase in Alberta at C$6.31 to C$7.70/bu. delivered. Saskatchewan and Manitoba held at C$7 and C$5.86/bu. delivered, respectively.

Beusekom said farmers need to start looking at new crop barley and wheat. That they should meet with their buyers and “put some hedges on.”

Supplies

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected all wheat for feed, waste and dockage to bump up to 3.78 million tonnes in 2026/27 from 3.60 million in 2025/26.

AAFC forecast barley for feed, waste and dockage to relatively firm at 5.63 million tonnes for the new crop year, with that for 2025/26 at 5.55 million.

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• Solid crush data released Tuesday remained supportive for soyoil, helping underpin beans. Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans in the United States in January, which was a record for the month and up 10.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House later this week.
• Rainfall in southern Brazil helped improve crop conditions, reducing concerns over hot and dry weather in the area. Meanwhile, the harvest was progressing in central and northern growing regions.
• Optimism over increased sales to China remained supportive for values, although the Lunar New Year holiday was limiting business.

WHEAT futures corrected higher amid ideas recent losses were overdone.

• Concerns over cold temperatures damaging winter wheat in parts of Ukraine were supportive.
• Warmer weather and dryness concerns in parts of the U.S. Plains were also supportive.

CORN futures were up in sympathy with wheat, with positioning ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ag Outlook Forum a feature.

• The USDA will release its first projections for 2026/27 supply and demand as part of the Ag Outlook Forum, with early trade estimates predicting a reduction in corn acreage and increases in soybean area.

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“There’s starting to be more interest. Barley and corn prices are virtually the same price,” Haley said.

Flaking corn

He noted the cost savings come with steam flaking the corn, as that adds about 20 per cent more feed value. Even the cost of adding corn distillers dried grains is offset with the process.

Also heading into Western Canada is U.S. barley, Haley said.

“There has been Montana barley up here for quite a while now,” he commented. “Sometimes it’s not very much, but sometimes it’s quite a bit.”

Otherwise, the domestic feed market remains very quiet. He placed domestic barley for February delivery Lethbridge at C$260 to C$265 per tonne, March at C$270, and April-May-June at C$285.

For feed wheat, Haley said it’s virtually the same price as barley while demand for wheat “comes and goes.”

Barley exports

One bright spot for the Prairie feed market is export demand. Haley said the line elevators are competing hard with each other for barley.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported for the week ended Jan. 25, that barley exports of 1.48 million tonnes so far in 2025/26 are nearly 40 per cent higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, domestic use is down more than 13 per cent at 614,600 tonnes.

Feed prices

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported for the week ended Jan. 28 that feed barley prices were steady to lower, with Alberta remaining at C$4.50 to C$5.88 per bushel delivered. Those in Saskatchewan fell 15 cents at C$4.50 to C$4.75 bu./del. and Manitoba shed three cents at C$4.50 to C$4.61.

As for feed wheat, prices were steady to higher, with Alberta holding at C$5.85 to C$7.48 bu./del. Prices in Saskatchewan rose 13 cents at C$7 bu./del. and Manitoba bumped up a nickel at C$5.87.

Also, Prairie Ag Hotwire listed Montana barley at the equivalent of C$3.52 bu., holding steady of the week.

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Ettner said there were some surprises in the monthly supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture released on Jan. 12. The moves in the three commodities have largely settled down.

“On the corn side, they raised harvested acres by 1.3 million,” Ettner said on Jan. 14. “There weren’t too many people talking about harvested (corn) acreage ahead of the report.”

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates increased its call on harvested corn acres for 2025/26 to 91.3 million and nudged up the national yield by 0.5 of a bushel per acre to 186.5.

For soybeans, Ettner said it was a little bit of a surprise that the USDA cut exports by 16 million bushels at nearly 1.58 billion.

“The 16 million was larger than expected,” he said.

The changes to wheat weren’t much of a surprise either, Ettner added, noting that the market “presold” those ideas well before the WASDE was released and the reaction was toned down.

Ettner said that with the new carryouts for soybeans, corn and wheat, their prices have adjusted close to their fair values.

“There’s really not much of a need to move up or down based on carryouts,” he said, noting that some short-term movement could come from notable changes to exports or on fresh news that’s significant.

“The next sizeable report for a move will be the March 31 acreage report,” he added.

As for U.S. soybean export sales to China, Ettner said he’s confident that the latter will meet the 12 million tonnes of purchases by the end of February.

“Most of the commentary make it sound like it won’t happen or reasons why we think it won’t happen,” Ettner said. “I haven’t seen a buying pace slow enough to doubt it. Now with the lower price (for soybeans) we may even see them pick up the pace.”

Reports indicated China is believed to have bought about 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans over the last two and a half months. That leaves China with six weeks to acquire the remainder.

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Tom Lilja, an analyst for Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said the January report will be especially important as it typically finalizes the yield figures for the current growing year. This year, he expects reduced yields for U.S. corn and soybeans.

“There was a fair amount of rust pressure in Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, through some of those areas,” Lilja said.

As for wheat, current and future crops may also see declines.

“Probably the biggest expectation (for wheat) is that the U.S. is set to lose (1.3) million acres of planted wheat this year just due to poor market price,” he added. “There were a number of in-state reports that showed very sharp declines in (winter wheat) conditions … We saw a decline of 26 per cent (good to excellent) in Colorado. Nebraska was down 14 per cent, Oklahoma was down nine per cent, Texas was down six per cent and Kansas was down two per cent.”

Lilja also heard that safrinha corn plantings in Brazil could be delayed as a knock-on effect of late soybean plantings due to high soil moisture.

“If that does happen and that weather does become a factor, I would anticipate strength in the corn market,” he said.

March corn, soybean and wheat contracts, except for Minneapolis spring wheat, all saw weekly gains on Jan. 7. While the March corn contract ended the day at US$4.4675 per bushel, Lilja said a two to three bushel per acre cut in corn yield could push the futures past US$4.55/bu.

He said the upcoming reports may already be priced into the markets by the trade, but Lilja warned a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine could potentially put more corn and wheat into the market.

“(Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is one of the reasons our corn exports have been well above-average this year because Ukraine has been limited in shipping,” he explained.

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At 176 million tonnes, Cordonnier’s estimate of the 2025/26 Brazil soybean harvest is between those of the United States Department of Agriculture at 175 million and the 177 million from Conab, its Brazilian counterpart. Regardless of the estimate, Brazil appears to be on its way to its largest soybean crop on record.

Why it matters: South American and U.S. soybean and corn crops greatly influence North American prices

Cordonnier said rainfall throughout Brazil was variable, depending on the region during October and November.

“Since December, it’s gotten much more regular,” he added. “The farmers who had irregular rainfall are now much more positive and confident that the soybeans will do good.”

He noted that east-central Brazil is to be become drier than the rest of the country. He said the La Nina that could impact the weather across South America could bring above normal rainfall for central Brazil and below normal precipitation for southern Brazil.

Safrinha corn dispute

As for Brazilian corn, Cordonnier said there’s a dispute over the size of the safrinha crop, the country’s second harvest. He said that Conab was on the high end of forecasts with the safrinha corn area expanding by 3.8 per cent. Meanwhile, consultancy IMEA projected an increase of 1.3 per cent.

“I think Brazilian corn has sort of ‘yet-to-be-determined’ going forward,” Cordonnier said.

The USDA stuck with its estimate of 131 million tonnes of corn in total for Brazil for 2025/26 in its December report, down from 136 million the previous year. However, Conab swung the other way, projecting an increase to 138.3 million tonnes.

Argentina crops

For Argentina, Cordonnier said that country’s corn and soybean crops are 60 to 70 per cent planted.

“They’ve had better than expected weather and the crops are doing better than anticipated,” he said, noting that some part of Argentina have been drier than others.

More soybeans, less corn to be planted

In looking at what U.S. farmers could plant in 2026, Cordonnier predicted a shift of two million to four million acres to soybeans from corn, despite poor soybean exports to China and the massive South American crops.

“The soybean advantage over corn is that it’s cheaper to plant,” he said. “That’s going to be a big factor going forward.”

However, he said the weather will be a wildcard as estimates start to come.

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