The monsoon delivers nearly 70 per cent of the rain needed to water crops and recharge reservoirs and aquifers. With nearly half of the country’s farmland without any irrigation, it depends on the June-September rains to grow a number of crops.

Why it matters: India is a major destination for Canadian crop exports

Good rains will help to bring down food prices, to keep inflation at the central bank’s comfort level, and to allow the world’s biggest rice exporter to ship more of the staple.

The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to reach 105 per cent of the long-term average this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference.

The India Meteorological Department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

Above-average rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas over northwest India, northeast India, and southern Peninsular India, where below-average rainfall is likely, Ravichandran said.

The El Niño weather phenomenon, which usually leads to below normal monsoon rains, is unlikely to occur during the four-month-long monsoon season, said Ravichandran.

In 2024, India received 107.6 per cent of its long period average rainfall, against a forecast of 106 per cent.

Steady agricultural growth will boost rural consumption and keep inflation near the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate, enabling flexibility in rate cuts amid global volatility, said Aditi Gupta, economist at Bank of Baroda.

The RBI lowered its key repo rate last week for a second consecutive time and changed its monetary policy stance, signalling room for more cuts ahead as it seeks to boost the sluggish economy in the face of fresh U.S. tariffs.

India is the world’s biggest exporter of rice and onions, and the second-biggest producer of sugar. Following surplus rainfall in 2024, India lifted curbs on rice and onion exports but allowed limited sugar exports of 1 million tons.

“Above-average rains for the second year will help New Delhi increase sugar, rice and onion exports. It will also help reduce edible oil imports,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

The world’s largest importer of edible oils, India currently fulfils nearly two-thirds of its demand through overseas purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

— Additional reporting by Siddhi Nayak

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Lentils and potash supplies from Canada have been steady, they said.

Ties between India and Canada deteriorated sharply after New Delhi and Ottawa ordered six diplomats to leave in tit-for-tat moves over Ottawa’s allegations that New Delhi was targeting Indian dissidents on Canadian soil.

The worsening relations raised concerns over the supplies of lentils and potash from Canada.

India is a leading importer of protein-rich lentils – a pulse variety used to make daal curry – a staple for millions of people.

India also imports potash for its huge agriculture sector, which employs about half of its 1.4 billion people and accounts for nearly 15 per cent of the $3 trillion economy.

“Indian traders have already placed orders for shipments scheduled for October and November, and these are expected to arrive as planned,” Bimal Kothari, chairman of India Pulses and Grains Association, said referring to lentil imports from Canada.

India imports red lentils from Canada, Australia, Russia and Myanmar. India also imports yellow peas, another pulse variety, from Canada.

“There has been no disruption in the trade of pulse between Canada and India,” Kothari said.

Consumption of lentils in India has risen to around 3 million metric tons, but output remains stagnant at about 1.3 million tons.

India is the world’s biggest producer of pulse varieties, with a production around 29 million metric tons, but it’s not enough to meet local demand, making New Delhi the biggest importer of pulse.

India has sufficient stocks of pulse and there are no supply disruptions, said a senior government official who didn’t wish to be named.

A senior fertiliser industry official said: “We are continuing to import potash as per contracts. There has been no change in policy, and we have not received any orders or instructions from the government to stop potash imports from Canada.”

To fertilise crops, India depends on imports for its entire annual consumption of 4 million to 5 million tonnes of potash. Other than Canada, India ships in potash from Belarus and Russia. Israel and Jordan are other important suppliers of potash to India.

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