At the same time a year ago, an estimated 37 per cent of the country’s agricultural land was facing drought.

At the end of March, an estimated 39 per cent of the country was classified as abnormally dry, or in moderate to severe drought, which was down from 53 per cent the previous month, AAFC said in the April 13 report.

WHY IT MATTERS: The improving conditions bode well for Canadian farmers in the areas that received moisture as spring planting and seeding approaches.

Large portions of central British Columbia, northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan and parts of Ontario and western Quebec recorded more than twice the normal March precipitation. However, above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan continued to reduce soil moisture and increase the extent and severity of drought.

Drought conditions throughout much of Eastern Canada improved significantly with continued above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures. Some portions of central Ontario saw a two-class drought improvement in March.

Only 21 per cent of Prairie farmland in drought

Most of the Prairie region experienced near to above-normal March precipitation, with much of region receiving between 85 and 150 per cent of normal, with some localized areas exceeding 200 per cent of normal due to multiple winter storms. Southern Alberta remained dry with portions of the region receiving less than 60 per cent of normal precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures, resulting in continued expansion of drought.

Snowfall from repeated winter storms increased snowpack, particularly in Alberta, although periodic warming led to some snowmelt in southern areas. Overall, above-normal precipitation supported short-term moisture improvements in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, while precipitation deficits persisted in Manitoba, limiting recovery.

At the end of the month, 39 per cent of the Prairie was classified as abnormally dry, or in moderate to severe drought, which compares with 58 per cent the previous month. Only 21 per cent of the region’s agricultural landscape was abnormally dry or facing drought which compares with 47 per cent at the end of February and 32 per cent a year ago.

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The India Meteorological Department released its first forecast for the 2026 monsoon season on April 13, predicting rainfall will reach 92 per cent of the long-term average. That marked the lowest early forecast of the past three decades.

WHY IT MATTERS: Indian demand for Canadian pulses varies from year-to-year depending on their own production and trade policies.

The southwest monsoon typically runs from June through September as it advances northward and accounts for about 70 per cent of India’s seasonal rainfall. The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as between ​96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 centimetres for the four-month season.

India’s rabi season crops, which include lentils and chickpeas, are typically seeded in November and December. They rely on the moisture reserves from the monsoon rains for germination and growth.

Indian forecasters predict El Niño conditions to develop during the hurricane season, which has led to below average monsoon rains and drought for the country in past El Nino years.

While below-normal seasonal rainfall is expected for most of the country, some localized areas may still see normal to above-normal precipitation, the India Meteorological Department said.

The department will release its next forecast at the end of May, with several factors that may alter the monsoon outlook. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean, with positive conditions likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season — which is favourable for rainfall.

Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover during January to March 2026 were slightly below normal, which was also said to be favourable for southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall 2026.

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May canola settled at C$704.90 per tonne on April 8, falling out of the sideways trading range it had held for the previous three weeks.

• For daily market updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

From a technical standpoint, May canola had been creating a coiling pattern over the past month, with the break lower opening up significant room to the downside, said analyst Mike Jubinville. Looking at a chart, the next support comes in at C$700 per tonne and then around C$680.

However, seasonal price trends at this time of year generally point higher, said Jubinville.

While old crop canola supplies remain more than sufficient to meet demand, he added that reduced fertilizer applications due to high costs could be supportive in the longer term.

With the bearish technical signals on one side and supportive seasonals on the other, “the markets will just trade the war,” added Western Producer markets desk analyst Bruce Burnett.

The post ICE weekly: War news driving canola markets appeared first on Grainews.

The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

The post CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans/corn awaiting acreage data appeared first on Grainews.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 110,658 contracts as of March 17 (135,694 long/25,036 short), up by about 18,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since July 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 364,317 contracts from 352,531 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders reduced their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 16,000 contracts, with the net long dipping to about 195,200 contracts. That was the first contraction after six previous weeks of increases.

The net short position in corn came in at about 230,800 contracts on March 17, up by 32,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 11,900 contracts — down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week.

Hard red winter wheat posted a net long of about 11,300 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net long position came in at about 15,300 contracts.

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For daily market updates visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

• Corn futures in Chicago climbed to their highest levels in 10 months, with the May contract up by 30 cents per bushel over the past month. Rising energy and fertilizer prices amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East added to expectations that farmers in the United States will shift more intended corn acres into soybeans this spring.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to its highest levels in four years, trading at just under US$100 per barrel on March 19.
• Feed barley into the Lethbridge-area feedlots was priced at about C$285 to C$295 per tonne in mid-March, having risen by C$20 to C$30 per tonne over the past month, according to provincial data. Feed wheat priced similar, with corn from the U.S. at US$290 per tonne. • Seasonal price trends contributed to the gains, as feed supplies tighten ahead of cattle going out to pasture and the new crop.
• Solid export demand continued to underpin the domestic feed market, with more grain moving offshore this year. Canadian Grain Commission data shows 2.142 million tonnes of barley exported through 31 weeks of the marketing year, up from 1.204 million tonnes at the same point a year ago.
• Country-specific data through January shows China remains the largest single destination for Canadian barley in 2025-26, accounting for about 57 per cent of the movement to-date. Japan and Saudi Arabia were also major buyers.
• Canadian imports of U.S. corn are also up on the year, according to the latest USDA data. Canada has imported 383,600 tonnes of U.S. corn from Sept. 1 through March 12, which compares with only 101,700 tonnes at the same point the previous marketing year. An additional 201,100 tonnes are on the books to move later — roughly eight times the outstanding sales at the same point in 2024-25.

The post Feed grain weekly: Barley bids rise with crude and corn appeared first on Grainews.

AAFC cautioned that the conflict in Iran “has heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility,” and noted that planting decisions could be altered while “the report is based on information and trade policies in effect as of March 11, 2026.”

Canola

• Projected canola ending stocks for 2025-26 were left unchanged at 2.76 million tonnes, while the 2026-27 forecast was cut by 200,000 tonnes from February at 1.46 million tonnes.

• Given average yields, AAFC forecast Canadian canola production in 2026-27 at 19.20 million tonnes, which was unchanged from the February estimate and down from the 21.80 million tonnes grown in 2025-26.

Wheat

• New crop wheat ending stocks were raised to 5.75 million tonnes from 5.70 million in February, while the 2025-26 wheat carryout held at 7.35 million tonnes.

• AAFC raised its call on wheat production to 35.01 million tonnes, from 34.98 million the previous month. That would still be well below the 39.96 million tonnes harvested in 2025-26.

Pulses

• Other notable revisions included slight increases in pea and lentil production estimates, with ending stocks of the two pulses also up by 100,000 tonnes each from the previous forecast.

• The pea carryout for 2026-27 was raised to 945,000 tonnes from 845,000 tonnes in February, while lentils were forecast at 1.67 million from 1.57 million tonnes.

• Pea ending stocks for the current marketing year are estimated at 1.31 million tonnes with lentils at 1.695 million tonnes.

Soybeans/Corn

• Corn ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 were left at 2.00 million tonnes.

• Soybean carryout for 2026-27 was cut by 50,000 tonnes from February, at 693,000 tonnes, which compares with 443,000 for the current marketing year.

March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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CWRS

Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5 per cent) wheat prices were up by C$1.40 to down by C$2.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from C$260.10/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to as high as C$288.10/tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $31.60 to $59.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars (C$1=US$0.7300) CWRS basis levels ranged from C$13.30 to C$28.20 below the futures.

CPSR

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were also mixed, down C$1.30 to up C$1.80 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$238.20 to C$262.30 per tonne.

Durum

Average durum prices were softer, down $1.30 to C$3.20 per tonne. Durum prices ranged from C$277.10 to C$293.20 per tonne.

Futures

MIAX spring wheat futures lost 10.75 cents per bushel in the May contract to settle at US$6.2425/bu. on March 17.

Hard red winter wheat futures were down by two cents in the May contract on the week at US$6.0675/bu.

The May Chicago soft wheat contract lost 1.25 cents at US$5.8975/bu.

The Canadian dollar was down by nearly three-quarters of a cent relative to its U.S. counterpart at 73.00 U.S. cents on March 17.

The post Prairie CWRS wheat bids mixed appeared first on Grainews.

Peas

Canada exported 190,480 tonnes of peas in January, which was up by 15 per cent from December, reported StatCan. Year-to-date pea exports of 1.322 million tonnes were running about 200,000 tonnes behind the year-ago pace.

India was the top buyer through six months, accounting for just over 500,000 tonnes of the total pea exports. Bangladesh and China were also major buyers, although Chinese purchases of 104,406 tonnes through January compare with 413,950 tonnes at the same point a year ago.

Lentils

Canadian lentil exports were down 34 per cent in January compared to December, with about 165,342 tonnes moved out of the country. Turkey was the largest destination, accounting for 38 per cent of the total. Crop year-to-date exports of 1.191 million tonnes were down by two per cent on the year.

India was the largest buyer of lentils so far this marketing year, accounting for 30 per cent of the total. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates round out the top three.

Chickpeas

Canada exported about 19,840 tonnes of chickpeas in January, which was down 12 per cent from the previous month. The United States was the largest buyer, accounting for roughly a quarter of the total, followed by Turkey and Pakistan.

Year-to-date chickpea exports at 115,470 tonnes are running 27 per cent ahead of the 2024-25 pace.

The U.S., Turkey and Pakistan were also the top destinations for Canadian chickpeas during the 2025-26 marketing year through January.

The post Pulse weekly: Canadian pea exports up in January, lentils lag appeared first on Grainews.

May canola settled at C$733.30 per tonne on March 11, having climbed by more than C$30 since the start of the war on Feb. 28.

The futures are “being dominated by what’s happening in the Middle East,” said Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets in Winnipeg.

While an uptrend remains in place from a chart perspective, Klusa cautioned that picking a top under the current environment was difficult given the unpredictable geopolitics.

He expected the latest rally in canola could lead to some shift in seeding plans, and recommended farmers lock in some new crop pricing.

However, planted area could also change depending on fertilizer availability. Roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure has sent prices climbing higher. Farmers may have already pre-booked fertilizer, but Klusa questioned if everything will be delivered.

“It will be an interesting year,” said Klusa, adding that weather conditions through the growing season will also become more important in the months ahead.

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