Some 20 miles away, at a research center in Junction City, scientists are developing hybrid wheat seeds that promise higher, more consistent crop yields as drought becomes more common across the Plains.

Taken together, the experiments could change the future of the struggling U.S. wheat industry, which is being threatened by shifting consumer trends and the rise of lower-cost global rivals eroding America’s export dominance. The U.S. economic prospects for wheat, a crop that’s been cultivated for 10,000 years, hang in the balance.

Wheat not ‘technified’

When it comes to technology, for decades wheat has been the horse-and-buggy to its sports car brethren, corn and soybeans. And American farmers have been growing less of the crop, sometimes planting it only in rotation with other crops to preserve soil health.

But hybrid wheat is finally becoming more widely available, and genetically modified varieties may launch in the U.S. within a few years. The push represents a bet that the science will arrive in time to make it profitable enough to matter for growers.

“Wheat hasn’t been, for lack of a better word, a technified crop,” said Jon Rich, Syngenta’s hybrid wheat operations head, who has spent years developing the product.

Wheat buyers have been more resistant to GMO wheat due in part to consumer skepticism, while most GMO corn and soybeans are used as feed for animals.

Shrinking demand

Once the world’s top wheat exporter, the U.S. has not held that title since 2017, according to federal data. Farmers are grappling with a three-decade downtrend in per-capita flour consumption, a trend reinforced by the Trump administration’s new federal dietary guidelines and the rise of gluten-free diets.

Things are trending differently in Canada, where mills produced 2.68 million tonnes of wheat flour in 2025, a 7.7 per cent increase over 2024 levels.

Wheat industry millers and scientists who gathered for an annual meeting last month in Olathe, Kansas, said the new guidelines stigmatize grain-based foods, further diminishing the market.

“The fact that we are having to say ‘bread is real food’ – it’s unfortunate,” said Jane DeMarchi, president of the North American Millers’ Association.

The United States became a corn-growing behemoth in part due to an early 20th-century breakthrough that has eluded wheat: hybrid seeds, which yield more grain even under stressful conditions such as drought. Average U.S. corn yields rose from around 25 bushels an acre in the 1930s to 186.5 bushels in 2025.

Corteva says it ‘cracked the code’ on hybrid wheat

Creating a hybrid wheat seed isn’t as simple. The seeds and plants are much smaller than corn and have more complex genetics, making hybridization efforts costly for companies to develop and sell.

But recent scientific advances in DNA sequencing have lowered costs for breeders, triggering a boom in research and commercialization efforts. Seed and chemical companies Syngenta and Corteva are pushing forward in the U.S., projecting billion-dollar payouts – eventually.

Chuck Magro, Corteva’s chief executive, says the company has “cracked the code,” and that its hybrid hard red winter wheat used to make bread can increase crop yields by 20 per cent. Corteva plans to release the seed commercially in the U.S. in 2027.

Syngenta, the Swiss agrichemicals and seeds group of China’s state-owned Sinochem, has been selling hybrid spring wheat seed to farmers in the northern Plains states since 2023, reaching 12,000 to 15,000 acres in 2025. Still, that’s a fraction of the 45 million U.S. wheat acres seeded annually.

Syngenta and Corteva also are working on other hybrids, including for soft wheat used in pastries and Asian-style noodles, in coming years. But it’s a gamble if farmers will be willing to pay for seeds that can cost twice as much as conventional offerings.

GMO crops

The vast majority of U.S. corn and soybeans are grown from genetically modified seeds that offer built-in herbicide tolerance and resistance to yield-robbing pests. That is one hope for wheat too, scientists said, and GMO technology could eventually offer traits that boost nutrition or grain quality, too.

“Anything that gives our producers an advantage can improve profitability – that would be welcome,” said Allan Fritz, a longtime wheat breeder with Kansas State University.

The plants in the Manhattan, Kansas, lab have been genetically modified with a drought-resistant trait known as HB4, developed by Argentina’s Bioceres Crop Solutions, and bred to tolerate a particular herbicide not currently used on wheat. While that grain was approved for U.S. production by the USDA in 2024, none has been planted on U.S. fields.

Genetic lines of wheat vary by region, so public university researchers are testing whether the HB4 traits will function in wheat grown in the U.S. Plains. Field trials are still at least two years away, according to Brad Erker of the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation, a farmer-governed trade group that has partnered with Bioceres to commercialize HB4 in the U.S.

Selling GMO wheat seed is even further off, by 2030 or 2032 at the earliest, Erker said, and will only occur if major buyers of U.S. wheat, such as Japan and Mexico, agree to allow purchases.

“That’s part of the goal with this, to make it more attractive to grow wheat,” said Erker. “We don’t have GMO technology for our farmers in wheat, and corn and soy and sunflowers and sugarbeets and cotton all do.”

—With files from Glacier FarmMedia

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Farmers expect corn, the most widely grown U.S. crop, to hew close to break-even levels this year, supported by strong usage. Some see soybeans as riskier, given rising competition from Brazil and a volatile U.S. trade relationship with top buyer China.

“Right now, you absolutely cannot make money on beans,” said Tim Gregerson, who farms in eastern Nebraska. “You can probably break even on corn, but you are going to have to have an extraordinary yield, or a price increase,” Gregerson said.

Most growers in America’s Midwest farm belt grow both crops, alternating what gets planted on each field from year to year to boost soil health. Many add wheat, sorghum, cotton or other crops to their rotations. But among farmers who have some flexible acres where they can plant anything, many see corn as their best bet.

USDA revisions add challenges

Planting decisions for 2026, hashed out in the winter months, mark the first step in determining the amount of grain produced in the world’s largest corn exporting nation and the second-biggest soybean supplier after Brazil.

Decisions are particularly challenging this year after the U.S. Agriculture Department made unprecedented revisions in January to its estimate of the last season’s harvested corn acreage, which, along with larger-than-expected estimates of the 2025 corn yield and stocks on hand as of December 1, pushed down prices.

Ahead of the USDA’s annual outlook forum this week, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average projected corn plantings for 2026 at 94.9 million acres, down about four per cent from last year’s 89-year high, but still the second-most corn acres in 13 years. The poll put soybean plantings at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average and up from the 81 million acres seeded in 2025, a six-year low.

U.S. farmers grew the biggest corn crop in history last year at more than 17 billion bushels, stuffing the nation’s grain bins and weighing on Chicago Board of Trade corn futures.

However, a record pace of export sales and robust demand from ethanol producers has kept a floor under prices as acreage ideas for 2026 take shape.

Even with rising costs for inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, CBOT December corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering near $4.60 (C$6.28) a bushel, close to break-even levels for farmers.

“The market is signaling, ‘We don’t want you to cut too many corn acres.’ We don’t need as many as last year, but with today’s demand base, it’s not like we need a huge drop,” said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.

Pressures in farm country

Some U.S. farmers are struggling to stay solvent, even with increased government aid payments.

Soybeans cost less to grow, and demand from domestic crushers and the burgeoning biofuels industry should help offset diminished export sales due to trade tensions with China, by far the world’s largest buyer. China has purchased 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since a late-October trade truce.

But prospects of future U.S. soy exports are uncertain ahead of a planned April meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, farmers in Brazil have begun to reap a record-large soy harvest that should dominate the global soy trade.

“The soybean market is more of a political football than the corn market right now,” said Dan O’Brien, an economist with Kansas State University.

Big corn yields

Corn typically yields more than triple the grain per acre compared to soybeans. While a large output pressures prices, individual farmers can earn more. Last year’s national corn yield was the highest on record at 186.5 bushels per acre, and state records were set in the No. 3 and 4 growing states of Minnesota and Nebraska as well as states farther on the fringe of the Corn Belt, like North Dakota.

As they finish their cropping plans for 2026, farmers say they are looking for ways to cut costs. In Nebraska, Gregerson has stopped buying new machinery and has found ways to cut fertilizer use. He is considering cutting back on herbicide applications, but doing so would mean staying close to the farm throughout the growing season to scout crops especially closely.

“When you do that, you have live and die in a sprayer. You don’t go on vacation in the spring or the summer. You have got to be so timely on killing your weeds.”

In North Dakota, farmer Phil Volk says growers in his area are delaying machinery repairs, skipping niceties like growth-promoting seed treatments on soybeans, and devoting most of their input costs to corn, his most profitable crop in 2025. Volk expects to expand his corn acreage this spring by 15 per cent compared to last year.

“They are going to cut as many expenses on soybeans (as possible) and pour all the juice to corn,” Volk said.

— one acre equals 0.405 hectares

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Wheat rose on what appeared to be fund-driven short-covering, while corn futures sagged in choppy trade.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures closed up 1-1/2 cents at $11.24 per bushel after reaching $11.28-1/4, the contract’s highest since February 6.

CBOT March wheat gained nine cents to close at $5.37-1/4 a bushel while March corn settled down 1-1/4 cent at $4.27-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans rallied as traders gauged the likelihood of top global soy buyer China booking more U.S. soybeans.

U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that China had increased its target for U.S. soybean purchases, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a monthly world crop report on Tuesday said, “China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans.”

Brazil, the world’s biggest soy producer and exporter, has begun harvesting a record-large soybean crop that is expected to dominate the global export market in the coming months. But the prospect of China buying additional U.S. soy cargoes under a trade truce has buoyed the futures market.

“The big unknown with China continues to be the big factor. We are finding that futures are just not able to set back very much in this environment,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Wheat climbed despite a lack of news. Commodity funds hold a hefty net short position in CBOT wheat futures, leaving the market vulnerable to bouts of short-covering.

Corn futures drifted lower, losing to soybeans and wheat on inter-market spreads. The market shrugged off confirmation from the USDA of private sales of 230,560 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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Corn settled flat to firmer after the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a monthly report raised its forecast of U.S. corn exports for the current marketing year, while wheat futures ended fractionally lower.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures SH26 settled up 11-3/4 cents at $11.22-1/2 per bushel. The contract had reached $11.37-3/4 last week, its highest level in two months.

CBOT March corn CH26 ended unchanged at $4.28-3/4 a bushel while May corn CK26 closed up 1/4 cent at $4.37-1/4. CBOT March wheat WH26 finished down 1/2 cent at $5.28-1/4 a bushel.

Soybeans rose despite bearish data in the USDA’s monthly supply-demand report. The agency raised its estimate of soybean production in Brazil, the world’s top supplier of the oilseed, to 180 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 178 million and above an average of analyst estimates for 179.39 million.

The USDA left its forecast of U.S. soybean stocks remaining at the end of the current marketing year unchanged at 350 million bushels.

Some brokers remain optimistic that U.S. soybean exports will increase, potentially tightening end-year inventories, in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s remark last week that China had increased its target for U.S. soybean purchases under a trade truce. “China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” the USDA said in the text of its report.

“They (traders) believe that the ending stocks are going to come down, from the administration trying to be pro-demand from China,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

Meanwhile, CBOT soyoil futures hit contract highs across the board, buoyed this week by optimism about demand from the biofuels sector as well as a U.S.-India trade pact that could spur export business.

Corn and wheat futures sputtered, anchored by abundant global supplies. The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. 2025/26 wheat ending stocks, bucking trade expectations for a cut. The government attributed the higher wheat stocks forecast to a reduction in demand from domestic flour millers.

For corn, the USDA raised its estimate of U.S. 2025/26 exports by 100 million bushels and cut its forecast of corn ending stocks by the same amount.

In Western Europe, France’s agriculture ministry raised its 2026 sowing estimate for the country’s main wheat crop slightly, confirming its expectation of an expanded area compared with last year.

-Additional reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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The expanding harvest of a record-large Brazilian soybean crop added to bearish sentiment, analysts said.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures SH26 settled down 4-1/2 cents at $11.10-3/4 per bushel, retreating from Friday’s high of $11.37-3/4, the contract’s highest level since early December.

But CBOT soyoil futures bucked the lower trend, rising more than two per cent after the U.S. and India released an interim framework for a trade deal that could lower barriers to Indian imports of U.S. soyoil.

Corn and wheat futures drifted lower amid a lack of supportive news. CBOT March corn CH26 ended down 1-1/2 cents at $4.28-3/4 a bushel and March wheat WH26 finished down 1 cent at $5.28-3/4 a bushel.

Last week’s surge in soybean futures, tied to hopes for fresh purchases by China, unleashed a wave of cash soybean sales by U.S. farmers that helped knock futures off their highs by Friday. Soybeans had risen last week after Trump said China was considering raising U.S. soybean purchases to 20 million metric tons for the current season. But dealers remain skeptical as higher prices make it uneconomical for China to purchase U.S. beans.

The focus by Monday appeared to shift back to Brazil, the world’s top soy supplier, where growers had harvested 16 per cent of the soybean crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said. That was just above the 15 per cent level reported a year earlier.

“A lot of this has to do with the Brazilian harvest getting into full tilt,” said Tom Fritz, a partner with Chicago-based EFG Group.

Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly world supply-demand report on Tuesday, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expected the agency to raise its estimate of Brazil’s soybean harvest to 179.4 million metric tons, from its previous forecast of 178 million, already an all-time high.

Brazilian crop supply agency Conab is scheduled to release its own production estimates on Thursday.

Traders shrugged off news from the USDA on Monday confirming private sales of 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China.

“U.S.-China soybean trade appears to be running out of steam with that growing supply pressure out of South America ever-present,” said Sean Hickey, an analyst at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

-Additional reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Michael Hogan in Hamburg

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Corn and wheat futures ticked lower, anchored by plentiful global grain supplies.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybeans SH26 settled up 1-1/2 cents, or about one per cent, at $10.53 a bushel while March soyoil futures BOH26 ended up 1.99 cents, or 3.9 per cent, at 52.97 cents per pound.

CBOT March corn CH26 settled down 1-3/4 cents at $4.20-1/4 a bushel and March wheat WH26 finished down 2 cents at $5.10-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans and soyoil drew support from news that the administration of President Donald Trump plans to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, according to sources familiar with the plans.

The administration will keep blending quotas close to its initial proposal, the sources said, while dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.

Some analysts said the plan could increase imports of renewables, curbing demand for U.S. soyoil, the main feedstock for biodiesel. Nonetheless, CBOT March soyoil futures BOH26 rallied on the news, surging above the 50-and 100-day moving averages.

“The charts are positive, and the trade wants to believe there is something positive that is going to come out of the administration,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

Additional support for soybeans stemmed from monthly U.S. crush data. The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members crushed 224.991 million bushels of soybeans in December, slightly above an average of trade estimates and the second-highest monthly crush on record.

Rallies were capped by expectations for a bumper soy crop in top global supplier Brazil, where the harvest is just beginning. Brazilian agency Conab trimmed its estimate of the country’s soybean production to 176.12 million metric tons, down 1 million tons from its December forecast but still a record high.

Separately, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult raised its Brazilian soy crop estimate to a record 182.2 million tons, up 4 million tons from its previous projection in November.

Corn futures were still consolidating after the USDA surprised grain markets on Monday by increasing its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn harvest to a new record, while also pegging U.S. quarterly stocks of the cereal at their largest ever.

The International Grains Council on Thursday forecast total world grains production at a record 2.461 billion metric tons, up 31 million tons from its previous projection.

-Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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Corn and wheat futures followed the weak tone, pressured by rising global grain supplies.

Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans SF26 fell by 16-3/4 cents to $10.76-3/4 a bushel. This is below $10.77, the contract’s lowest since October 30.

CBOT March corn fell by 5-3/4 cents to $4.40-3/4 a bushel and March wheat WH26 closed down 4-1/4 cents at $5.29-1/4 per bushel.

Soybeans posted the biggest percentage declines as traders worried that the window for U.S. soybean exports was closing, with Brazilian farmers set to start harvesting a bumper crop in just a few weeks.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed sales of 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China on Friday, the latest in a series of bookings since late October. U.S. officials have said top global buyer China would purchase 12 million tons of the oilseed following a trade truce in late October.

But analysts are concerned that export demand for U.S. soy may soon dry up as South American supplies become available.

“Once China is done, who is there to buy U.S. beans, with the Brazilian discounts and the size of the crop down there?” asked Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based AgResource Co.

Brazilian crop agency Conab on Thursday lowered its forecast of the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop to 177.12 million tons, still a record high, if confirmed.

Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that managed commodity funds built a massive net long position in CBOT soybean futures by mid-November, leaving the market prone to bouts of long liquidation. The CFTC has been slowly releasing backdated commitments-of-traders reports from weeks when the U.S. government was shut down.

Corn futures fell on technical selling as the benchmark CBOT contract Cv1 proved unable to push through chart resistance at the $4.50 mark this week, anchored by ample global grain supplies.

A massive wheat harvest in Argentina threatens to compete with corn as a feed grain. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its estimate of Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest to a record 27.7 million metric tons, from 24.5 million previously.

“Argentina is offering low-protein wheat under $200 a ton. They are pushing that wheat everywhere they can; it is competing with corn,” Basse said.

-Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.

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Chicago Board of Trade March corn CH26 closed up 2-1/4 cents at $4.46-1/2 per bushel, staying inside the prior day’s trading range.

CBOT March wheat WH26 gained 4 cents at $5.33-1/2 a bushel and January soybeans SF26 gained 2-1/4 cents at $10.93-1/2 a bushel.

Corn got a boost after the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net export sales of corn in the week ended November 13 at 2.38 million metric tons, topping a range of trade estimates for 800,000 to 2.0 million tons.

In addition, under daily reporting rules, the government confirmed private sales of 186,000 tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations.

“A sliding dollar is further benefiting a scorching 2025/26 U.S. corn export campaign,” StoneX analyst Matt Zeller wrote in a note to clients.

A weaker dollar makes U.S. crops cheaper for buyers with other currencies and can boost demand. The greenback extended declines from Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but gave a less hawkish outlook than expected.

Still, rallies were capped by ample global supplies of corn and wheat.

“We expect wheat prices to settle into a range,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of consultants Cornucopia.

Gorey said investor positioning had become more neutral in recent weeks, and that because the Ukraine-Russia war was not impeding grain exports, any moves towards peace were unlikely to significantly move prices.

Soybeans inched higher as traders continued to monitor Chinese purchases. The USDA confirmed daily sales of 264,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China and another 226,000 to unknown destinations.

Meanwhile, Brazilian crop agency Conab lowered its forecast of the country’s 2025/26 soybean crop by around 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 million tons, still a record if the projection is confirmed.

— Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.

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Corn futures also sagged while soybean futures rebounded from multi-week lows, buoyed in part by news of fresh U.S. soy export sales.

Chicago Board of Trade March wheat WH26 closed down 5 cents at $5.29-1/2 after dipping to $5.25-1/4, its lowest since October 23.

March corn CH26 settled at $4.44-1/4 a bushel, down 3-3/4 cents while January soybeans rose 4 cents to $10.91-1/4 a bushel.

Wheat declined for a fourth session a day after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast of world ending stocks in a monthly report. The USDA also raised its wheat production forecasts for Russia, Australia, Canada and several other key suppliers.

“We have changed some of the narrative regarding the world wheat tightness, which had been in place this (past) summer,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale Inc.

Nonetheless, traders continue to monitor the threat of attacks on shipping in the Black Sea that could inhibit grain shipments.

Soybean futures turned higher after the USDA announced a series of fresh purchases of U.S. supplies of the oilseed under daily reporting requirements. The government confirmed private sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China, another 331,000 tons to undisclosed destinations and 120,000 tons of soymeal to Poland.

However, some analysts believe the USDA’s forecast of overall U.S. soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year that began on September 1, 2025, is still too high at 44.5 million metric tons, with the harvest of a bumper Brazilian crop just a few weeks away.

“The export target … raises questions as the current pace makes it impossible to achieve,” Argus Media analysts said, adding the USDA may have to lower the forecast in its January report.

Brazil is the world’s biggest soybean exporter, supplying top buyer China as well as other countries.

“Given that we are seeing a transition in export pricing right now where Brazil will take over for the next four months, it’s hard to see the non-China buyer being too aggressive” in booking U.S. soy, Nelson said.

–Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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Soybean and wheat futures followed the firm trend, shrugging off pressure from larger-than-expected estimates of Canada’s wheat and canola harvests.

Chicago Board of Trade March corn futures CH26 settled up 3-3/4 cents at $4.47-1/4 per bushel, bouncing after a dip to $4.41-3/4, a one-week low.

CBOT January soybeans SF26 ended up 3-3/4 cents at $11.19-1/2 a bushel, rebounding after hitting a two-week low at $11.14. March wheat WH26 settled up 2 cents at $5.40-1/4 a bushel.

Corn futures found light support from news that the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed sales of 392,500 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and another 100,800 tons to Colombia.

However, the benchmark March corn contract retreated and fell to session lows after the USDA’s announcement, only to rally again in choppy trade.

“It does seem fairly thin,” Ted Seifried, chief market strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge, said of Thursday’s trading volume. “The way (corn and soybean futures) both got within a penny of support levels, and bounced, it seems like it might be technical in nature,” he added.

Soybeans rallied as traders awaited more indications about Chinese purchases of American soy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said China was poised to complete its commitments under a U.S.-China trade agreement, including the purchase of 12 million metric tons of soybeans, which the Treasury chief said would be finished by the end of February 2026.

In a backdated weekly report, the USDA reported net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended October 30 at 1,248,500 metric tons, in line with analyst estimates. The tally included 232,000 tons sold to China, the country’s first purchases of the 2025 harvest. EXP/SOY

Wheat futures inched higher, following the trend in corn and soybeans, despite a reminder of Canada’s large wheat crop.

Statistics Canada reported the country’s total wheat production at nearly 40 million tons, versus an average of trade expectations for 38.5 million tons. The government agency pegged canola production at 21.8 million metric tons, above the average trade estimate of 21.25 million.

– Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing.

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