Practical solutions and community support can help farmers manage stress, mental health advocates say.

Why it matters: Farming can be one of the most stressful professions in Canada, with farmers experiencing higher-than-average rates of depression and anxiety.

As spring begins, farmers are thinking about what to plant and which seeds and crop protection products to use. Meanwhile, weather, markets and geopolitics are out of their control.

“Think about the farmers across the country who experienced droughts, who experienced flooding, who experienced tariffs,” said Chad Bouma, a social worker practicing in the rural area around Drayton, Ont.

“All those things probably have been going through their mind since the harvest time.”

Bouma said he’s seen the stress and anxiety lead to decision paralysis.

“Those farmers have real difficulty even kind of making those decisions, because they don’t want to make the wrong decision, because maybe the decision they made last year was the wrong decision.

Stress clouds the judgement ‘window’

Stress can often cloud a person’s judgement and decision-making abilities said Megan Burnside-Poitras, communications advisor with Agricultural Wellness Ontario. Burnside-Poitras spoke at the Eastern Ontario Crops Conference earlier this year.

In her presentation, she compared stress and judgement to a window.

“I look out my office window in the afternoon. I’m looking out into the farm, into an orchard. It’s a beautiful window to look at.”

“Most days, you know, that window is pretty huge, a big picture window, and it’s very clear, and I can see how beautiful it is out,” she said. “But occasionally, it’s harder to see out that window.”

In times of higher stress, it is common to experience ‘hyperarousal,’ an agitated state with higher energy, or ‘hypoarousal,’ a state of shutting down. Both these situations can cloud that window.

“It’s a whole lot harder to see that same beautiful visual that’s on the other side of it, even though it’s still there, because things are getting cloudy because of that stress.”

Outside factors like weather, tariffs, market prices and public perception can “draw the blinds” on the window, obscuring the view.

How farmers can manage stress

Bouma said the role of a social worker is to give farmers the tools to see their situation clearly and understand when they need support.

“Some farmers experiencing anxiety, they don’t know that it’s anxiety,” he said. “They might just think it’s stress that they can’t get over, and then they beat themselves up.”

Recognition and awareness-building are critical.

“A lot of the time we don’t actually know that there’s something wrong until something catastrophic has happened, or there’s a crisis,” Bouma said.

One of the most important things in high-stress times is to focus on prevention and mitigation measures, Burnside-Poitras said. This means identifying stress triggers, how they can be mitigated and focusing on what can be controlled. This could be as simple as staying rested, hydrated and well-fed.

Community a mental health advantage

When it comes to mental health, the advantage in agricultural communities is just that: community.

Burnside-Poitras cited a study from Stanford University which concludes “Social ties in general are going to lead to lower stress, anxiety and depression, higher self-esteem, greater empathy, increased trust and cooperation and enhanced well-being altogether” as well as a 50 per cent chance of a longer life.

“The community perspective for mental health and farming is the most important piece of this,” Bouma said. “I cannot emphasize that any stronger.”

“When we isolate (mental health) or we individualize it, then it’s not going to go very far, is it?”

“There’s a lot of resilience already built into farming,” he said. Farmers have often seen previous generations go through similar seasons.

Keeping the community connection can mean checking in on neighbours or getting involved with local community groups.

The rhythm of the seasons can also provide critical reflection time. Bouma said some farmers will do this on their own, while others may draw on peer groups.

“They are looking for practical solutions,” he said. “Hoping for the best is all well and good, but they also need to have pen to paper for that too.”

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After a year marked with volatility, trade disputes and continued erosion of faith in rules based trade, panelists at the Canadian Crops Conference, held in Toronto in March, explained challenges in the international trade order and what Canada can do to improve its standing.

How can Canada stand out in a globalized market?

“The rest of the world, the rest of the sectors of the global economy, are finally getting to know what it felt like to be agriculture for a number of years,” said Jeff Mahon, director of StrategyCorp.

He pointed to non-tariff barriers and the weaponization of trade.

Canada has sought to overcome challenges through diversification, but Mahon said this may not be as easy as some are making it out to be.

“This whole movement is driven by, you know, roughly 75 per cent of our exports going to the United States. But the last I checked, Canadian agriculture is already pretty diversified,” he said.

“Telling Canadian agriculture it needs to diversify further is like telling a cayenne pepper it needs to be spicy.”

The questions are — how Canada can grow its market share and how reliant Canada should be on bigger markets like China and India. Mahon said it will be important to recognize there may not be alternatives to those markets and Canada will likely need to continue trading in both.

Win-win thinking

In a global market currently favouring buyers, Mahon said Canada may need to find new strategies to stand out.

“In some cases, that might mean selling more processed or value-added goods,” He said. “In other cases, particularly when we’re looking at new markets in developing countries, we might want to think about bringing a bigger Canadian value proposition to them,” he said.

For example, instead of just offering commodities, Canaa can offer access to a network of capability and research.

This is already happening — for example, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent trip to India saw the promise of a Canada-India pulse research centre.

“Now you’re using empathy,” Mahon said. “You’re going to a developing country, India, and you’re saying, ‘what do you need from us?’”

In a country like India, where nutritional security is a concern, Mahon said this type of win-win-thinking could be part of Canada’s strength as a partner.

He added that he’d heard a former Indonesian ambassador suggest Canada could help countries build processing capacity, leading to “mandatory supply chains” with Canadian exports at the centre.

Mahon said he would like to see governments rephrase requests to industry to diversify and rather ask what the industry needs to grow market share.

“Diversification and growing exports isn’t going to work unless Canada fixes some of the supply side problems,” he said.

These may not be entirely an industry issue.

“The government might want to look in the mirror a little bit more if it wants to be able to figure out how to help grow agricultural exports.”

Barriers within international trade

One barrier for Canadian agri-food trade in the EU has been the challenge of adapting to regulatory frameworks. The effects of European policies, like the Green Deal, Farm to Fork strategy, can sometimes be felt in Canada.

For example, The European Commission has proposed a bill that would effectively set pesticide tolerances at zero on imported grains, oilseeds, pulses and other agricultural commodities if those pesticides haven’t been approved for use in the EU.

The EU isn’t a primary destination for Canadian grain, oilseeds and pulses, but exports can be significant some years.

European politicians have argued that this levels the playing field so growers outside of Europe don’t have a competative advantage.

The Canadian government is lobbying for predictability said Greg MacDonald, a counsellor with the Mission of Canada to the EU.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is seen as a close friend in many countries, and now the government is attempting to leverage that, MacDonald said.

People shouldn’t think the EU is “closed for business on agriculture trade,” he added.

MacDonald suggested Canada could continue to work with the EU on regulatory alignment.

“How do we make the regulatory frameworks work for Canada with the broad political overview we have that we’re the trusted and reliable partner, and the EU calls us and asks, how can Canada provide product X?”

A loss of faith in rules-based trade

The past year has also seen attacks on the role of rules-based trade.

Edwini Kessie, director of the agriculture and commodities division at the World Trade Organization (WTO) said he felt the core principles of his organization are “under attack.”

He said the non-discrimination principle and the security and predictability of market access have come into question for some.

“These have been the binding core principles of the WTO, but I think increasingly there are questions as to the effectiveness of the WTO rules in creating a level playing field,” Kessie said.

“We see in the EU specifically, regulatory and policy developments that may be shifting away from some core tenants of WTO rules, which adds to uncertainty in the grains and oilseeds trade,” MacDonald said.

Kessie said the solution is not for the global trade system to turn its back on the existing rules and encouraged stakeholders not to give up on the WTO.

“There are changes which have to be made,” he said. “And I do hope that the WTO members will come together and effect the real changes, which will strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system.”

“The current prosperity that we are witnessing the world is because of the rules-based system,” he said, “so we need to strengthen it.”

WTO ministerial talks in Yaounde, Camaroon at the end of March struggled to make headway on questions of reform and ultimately broke down after the group could not agree on renewing a moratorium on duties for electronic transmissions like digital streaming.

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“I saw firsthand all of the stress points at that huge hub and that’s certainly, I think, going to be an important priority for the Grain Growers,” said Bruce Burrows.

Burrows, who stepped into the executive director role on April 1, previously worked as president and CEO of the Chamber of Marine Commerce and as vice president and acting president and CEO of the Railway Association of Canada.

WHY IT MATTERS: Grain Growers of Canada is one of the largest national farm organizations in Canada, representing over 100,000 producers through 15 regional groups.

“Given my past roles in both modes, both the marine and rail mode, I’ve got a good deep network,” he said.

He said he sees opportunities to “bring coalition-building to a next level for farmers.”

Burrows also has experience with port infrastructure including the port of Vancouver, a critical exit point for Canadian grain exports. Bottlenecks at that port and other critical infrastructure threaten the sector’s reliability, so it must have a good relationship with the ports and railways in the west.

“We know the canola story well with China, which is a Vancouver story,” Burrows said, “but there are lots of other Asian markets beyond China, which I think the sector wants to target for growth. And that’s very much a West Coast story.”

He said he saw other transport opportunities in places like Thunder Bay.

Consulting and advocacy

Burrows also brings experience in government relations and international trade policy through his work with Tactix Government Relations and BurCan Consulting. He said one of his goals will be to build on the GGC’s reputation to strengthen government relations.

“Fine-tuning our advocacy skills is really critical in the consulting world,” he said. “I’ve learned a few tricks of the trade.”

Burrows looked forward to upcoming trade trips, particularly to the U.S., which he said will be critical.

“If there are some interesting missions that need to be organized, I’ve been part of those things before and (would) be willing to be part of them again.”

“Global trading relations come and go, politicians come and go, but geography doesn’t change,” he said. “So, that U.S.-Canadian relationship is going to be first and foremost.”

He also called Global Affairs Canada and the Trade Commissioner Service underused resources and said he was open to working with them.

Burrows said his first priority in his new role would be to listen.

“I’m going to be in intense learning mode for some time,” he said. “I know I have to walk the field before I start plowing it.”

Burrows said he’s interested to tour farm tours in Western Canada and to meet with farmers one on one.

Grain as a “superpower product”

He said he hopes to encourage the federal government to recognize grain’s importance.

Canada has significant market share in wheat, canola and pulse crops.

“From a broader policy perspective, I’ll be focusing on this so that the federal government understands that opportunity to ensure that grain is considered a Canadian superpower product.”

Burrows said he feels he is entering the sector at a pivotal time as Canada begins to recognize agriculture’s role as more than a basic resource.

“So, how do we leverage this moment?” he said. “I think that’s what’s really driving me, in terms of my interest getting into the role.”

“I think we can step up our game and really demonstrate… how critically important we are in terms of supporting the commitments of Canada going forward.”

Other priorities Burrows listed for his time in the role included:

• Ensuring Canadian grain is considered in the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.
• Engaging in labour issues and modernizing labour rules for a more predictable supply chain while respecting collective bargaining agreements.
• Finding ways to use precision agriculture technology to drive productivity and climate resiliency.
• Ensuring the movement of bulk resources at Canadian ports is recognized.

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The 2026 FCC Food and Beverage Report states sales among food and beverage manufacturers are predicted to rise by 0.8 per cent while volumes fall by 0.7 per cent, the fourth straight year of decline. It notes sales growth will likely be driven by higher prices, not higher consumption.

WHY IT MATTERS: With trade tensions still disrupting global supply, prices could fluctuate this year, affecting consumers’ choices.

FCC chief economist Craig Johnston said this disparity speaks to the issue of consumer purchasing power.

“Higher food prices over the past several years are really weighing on households’ budgets,” he said in an interview. “They’re making more cost-conscious decisions.”

“This is actually a headwind for consumption and a headwind for volumes.”

He said any upstream changes will no doubt filter down to Canadian producers. Some challenges are shared across sectors.

“When we think about common elements, you can think about the tariffs, the elevated input costs, generally,” he said.

Margins are tight across the sector, including for farmers.

“We’re not seeing massive improvements on margins within the food and beverage manufacturing sector to pre-COVID levels, and we’re not necessarily seeing that filter through to a broad-based increase in margins for primary ag.”

“The industry in general is still going through this adjustment period” he said, “and we do expect that to continue to 2026.”

Trade tensions still a factor

Canada will continue to grapple with trade uncertainty this year, including the recent instability caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Forecasts for costs of goods in the Food and Beverage Report were made before the crisis, “meaning that if the commodity price surge persists beyond just a few months, there would be upside risks to those estimates.”

FCC had expected pressures on some inputs, such as cattle and hogs, to ease from 2025 highs, but surging energy prices due to the conflict make that less likely.

Costs of production up

Production costs for food and beverage manufacturers increased by two per cent in 2025, driven mostly by raw material costs.

“The increase in raw material costs was driven by disruptions that constrained availability and raised prices,” the report states.

“Some examples from 2025 include avian influenza impacts on poultry … tariffs that increased the cost of imported aluminum packaging and historically low cattle herd sizes across North America.”

Costs across sectors

The report also breaks down costs associated with sub-sectors of food and beverage processing.

In grain and oilseed milling, sales were uneven in 2025 but improved by the fourth quarter. 2026 shows signs of a rebound in sales and volumes.

Large carryover of canola stocks is expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. Canola prices are expected to fall by 3.1 per cent in 2026.

The report suggested demand for Canadian maple syrup and honey has continued to increase in the global market.

In the dairy sector, 2026 will likely see a 3.6 per cent increase of product manufacturing sales over 2025. Processors are also expected to pass along costs from the producer price increase for unprocessed milk to consumers.

In the meat manufacturing sector, FCC forecasts sales up 1.6 per cent and volumes down by 5.6 per cent.

Tight supplies of live animals, due largely to disease outbreaks, drove prices up in 2025. According to the report, “2026 will likely see another year where price, not volume, drives sales upward.”

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WHY IT MATTERS: Conversations between Canadian and American agriculture groups could help set a tone ahead of the CUSMA review this summer.

Hoekstra spoke at the Canadian Crops Convention in Toronto on March 12.

He said tariffs are likely to stay on as cost of doing business in the American market. Canada should “do everything they can to get into the lowest tariff buckets.”

“You can make compelling cases for us to do business with Canada and Canada to get the lowest tariffs of any trading partner in the world,” Hoekstra said.

U.S. and Canadian businesses both need to advocate for that relationship.

Cross-border relationships

Some in the Canadian agriculture sector say that advocacy is already underway.

Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance said many Canadians have been advocating for cross-border business relationships. Last fall, CAFTA led a trade mission to Washington D.C. involving 12 national industry groups. The group’s goal was to highlight the importance of renewing the Canada-U.S. Mexico Agreement.

Pierre Petelle, CEO of CropLife Canada, said he has seen U.S. farm groups openly support CUSMA over the last six months — something not common in the early days of the second Trump presidency.

“That puts us in a much, much better position,” he said.

Canada shouldn’t overestimate its value: Hoekstra

When negotiating trade, Hoekstra said Canada must not overestimate its value to the American market.

“We don’t wake up in the morning worried about Canada,” he said. “You don’t find Americans advocating … ‘boycott Canadian products.”

“When you walk into the negotiating team, or you get on TV and you say, ‘America needs our fill-in-the-blank,’ whatever commodity you’re talking about, you’re going to get a certain kind of response,” Hoekstra said.

“Because for just about everything that you bring in, it’s kind of like, ‘no, we really don’t.’”

The U.S. has done a good job of diversifying its markets and cultivating long-term relationships said Darcy Pawlik, executive director of the Wheat Growers Association. This gives some truth to the idea it doesn’t need Canadian imports.

“They’ve done the diversification of their procurement already,” Pawlik said. “Canada, we have really not carried the ball in a mature way, from a trade perspective internationally, from diversifying markets.”

Canada may have some commodities American need, but Pawlik said in many cases it has found other options.

‘We should always aim for free trade’

Hoekstra suggested pitching why doing business with Canada is a “phenomenal deal” for the United States.

“You will get a much different response in Washington than coming in and saying, ‘you absolutely need our stuff.’”

A compelling case could land Canada in the lowest tariff bucket, the ambassador said.

Being in the lowest bucket shouldn’t be Canada’s goal, Pawlik said.

“We need to always aim for zero-tariff,” he said. “We should always aim for free trade.”

“If there’s some points of negotiation that the Canadian government just can’t find a way to work together on and we end up in that lowest tariff bucket, then so be it. But we should never start from a place of being OK with some tariffs. We’ve got to aim for zero.”

Integration of supply chains a key bargaining point

Entering negotiations with a “we have what you need” approach could indeed be harmful, as it will only upset Trump and his administration said Patrick Leblond, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, in an email to Glacier FarmMedia.

However, the U.S. is not entirely self-sufficient.

“Yes, Canada has some of what the U.S. needs, but we’re not the only ones,” Leblond wrote, adding the U.S. has more leverage than Canada on this issue.

Petelle said it may be important to consider the integration of Canada-U.S. supply chains as opposed to what goods one country needs over the other.

Whether crop protection products and seed, or processing and feed, the supply chain is “extremely integrated,” he said.

In the seed and crop protection sector, Canada probably needs the U.S. more than it needs Canada, Petelle said.

“We import a lot of our seed directly from the U.S. and other regions. A lot of the manufacturing of crop protection is done in the U.S. … so we’re pretty reliant on the input side for seed and crop protection.”

Canada and the U.S. “really produce food together,” Harvey said citing examples of beef crossing the border to be processed and Canadian wheat going to an American plant before being sent back to Canada.

“We’ve really got this deeply integrated production model, and it would be very negative for American interests for that model to be … gummed up,” he said.

American agri-food sector on board with CUSMA

“I think the most important thing is to have American interests who are in favor of the relationship,” Harvey said, “we’re seeing it really clearly that the American agri-food sector is in favor of continuing the treaty.”

In February, 40 American agricultural organizations formed a coalition to support CUSMA. Nearly 100 Canadian groups made a similar plea in December.

Petelle said this alignment between American and Canadian groups is a positive signal and could mean the beginnings of good negotiations between the two countries.

Despite his assertion there will always be a cost of entry in the American market, Hoekstra said the U.S. is interested in renewing CUSMA.

Pawlik said Canadian commodity groups should start talking with their U.S. counterparts ahead of the CUSMA review this summer.

“Wheat organizations talk to the wheat organizations, you know, and soybeans talk to soybeans… so that when they get to the negotiating floor, they can say, ‘hey, no problem. We’ve actually got industry leading these conversations. We’re figuring out ways to get along.’”

‘Get back to the table’

Hoekstra said negotiations around the trade agreement have been stalled by headwinds from Canada. He said there “hasn’t been a substantive discussion since the end of October” between the two countries.

Petelle said he saw things differently.

“It was interesting to hear the ambassador characterize it as ‘four months lost,’” he said. “Last time I checked, it was the U.S. that broke off the discussions.”

“We’ve had several months of nothing really moving, but I think that decision was theirs last fall,” he continued. “So, the first thing is to get back to the table and start having serious conversations, rather than through the media or through public statements by ambassadors and others.”

Pawlik said many Canadians would do well to have a better understanding of CUSMA and how tightly connected the two countries really are.

“The one thing that we continue to forget is that we are allies, right?” he said. “(We should) treat each other with maybe a little bit more respect than what we’ve been seeing to date, and that should be encouraged amongst all Canadians.”

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“Which is not sustainable,” the organization said in a statement to Glacier FarmMedia. 

“Access to additional credit does not address the underlying issue.”

FCC announced it would extend its Trade Disruption Customer Support Program, originally established in early 2025 in response to tariffs. Agriculture and food borrowers will be able to receive a new or additional credit line of up to $500,000 to modify terms and to defer principal payments on existing loans.

FCC will now also provide support to help producers and agribusinesses “manage financial pressures caused by unexpected market shocks,” Friday’s statement said.

Middle east conflict spikes input prices

Fertilizer prices have soared since the Iran war began at the end of February and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping, disrupting urea and sulphur supplies from the Gulf.

As a result, farmers around the world are struggling with fertilizer costs as the northern hemisphere spring planting season approaches.

“I would be faced with financial stress and I would have to maybe not buy as much fertilizer, or I would not plant what I was supposed to plant,” said FCC chief economist J.P. Gervais. “The liquidity in the credit is to actually, hopefully help businesses not having to deviate from what they believe is in their best interest long-term.”

Looking for immediate action

Grain Growers of Canada argues that the federal government should reduce farmers’ costs by dropping fertilizer tariffs.

Canada placed 35 per cent tariffs on Russian fertilizer levied in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. That tariff stopped imports of Russian urea, which had previously made up more than 63 per cent of Canadian imports according to a 2025 report from Grain Farmers of Ontario.

“Canada should also explore targeted, temporary support tied to fertilizer affordability, activated during periods of extreme price volatility, to provide a short-term safety net for farmers while longer-term solutions are implemented,” Grain Growers of Canada said.

-With files from Reuters

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“Emergency preparedness on farms isn’t an option — it’s essential,” said CASA executive director Sandra Miller in a news release on Wednesday.

Canadian Agricultural Safety Association (CASA) has launched a new online Emergency Preparedness Hub, which collects information and resources in one place to help farmers prepare for crises. It contains tools developed by CASA and other organizations and links to province and sector-specific resources.

Tools cover preparedness across the four listed sectors: cattle, pork, poultry and sheep. They cover issues like natural disasters, extreme weather, biosecurity and outbreak managementand how to deal with protests and trespassers on the farm.

Sector-specific information is provided by partnered organizations Canadian Cattle Association, Ontario Pork, Poultry Industry Council and Ontario Sheep Farmers.

Links to emergency plans from federal, provincial and territorial government websites contain information on emergency preparedness in different jurisdictions.

The launch of the Emergency Preparedness Hub coincides with CASA’s Canadian Agricultural Safety Week, March 15-21.

The Emergency Preparedness Hub is now available online.

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Burrows has previously served as president and CEO of the Chamber of Marine Commerce and as vice president and acting president and CEO of the Railway Association of Canada. He also has experience in consulting and policy through Tactix Government Relations and BurCan Consulting.

Burrows will assume the role from previous executive director Kyle Larkin, who stepped down in December.

In a Thursday morning written release, Burrows called it “a real honour to join Grain Growers of Canada and represent the interests of grain farmers across the country.”

“Strong advocacy starts with strong connections, and I look forward to strengthening those relationships by working with producers and members across Canada to ensure their priorities continue to be clearly heard in Ottawa,” he said.

Burrows’ role begins April 1.

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The vision, along with the group’s new mission statement of promoting a “culture of agricultural safety that protects people through knowledge sharing, support, and meaningful connections” comes as part of Canadian Agricultural Safety Week, March 15-21.

“This new mission and vision, it’s not just a symbolic change,” said Sandy Miller, CASA’s executive director.

“Agriculture is one of Canada’s most hazardous industries, and we’ve made a lot of progress, but there are still too many preventable injuries and fatalities happening in farming.”

WHY IT MATTERS: Agriculture is one of Canada’s most dangerous job sectors, with more than 60 fatalities per year as a result of agriculture-related injuries

Miller said the choice of the word ‘harm’ in the new vision was a deliberate one to highlight both physical and mental health risks.

“It’s not just farmers getting injured stepping over PTOs,” she said. “There were so many other factors to be considered.”

“CASA’s role has always been about sharing knowledge to keep people safe, so we really wanted to be explicit in our role as an opportunity to drive cultural change.”

The evolution of farm safety

Cultural changes can be difficult to drive, but Miller said the conversation around farm safety and wellness has evolved before.

“Just looking at (mental health), I think there’s been a huge shift in terms of resources that are available, the conversations that are being had, the lessened stigma,” she said. “Are we there yet? No, but do I see progress? Absolutely.”

“When I think back to as recently as, let’s say, 2015-2016, very few farmers were talking about mental health,” she said. “We would say stress rather than mental health, because we were trying to ease our way into reducing some stigma.”

There have also been improvements on physical safety issues over time, like tractor rollover, Miller added.

CASA’s new vision reflect a focus on collaborative, positive solutions, the organization said in a March 16 news release.

Part of that collaborative approach involves working with provincial partners like AgSafe B.C. and federations of agriculture in Ontario, Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Miller added CASA is nearly finished crafting a 2026-29 strategic plan, which will translate the new priorities into action.

Practical measures

Miller added there are practical measures producers can take on their own farms which reflect this idea of practical solutions.

“Take step back and, just as you would do a circle check of your tractor, do a circle check of your farm,” she said.

She urged farmers to take a clear and honest look at what needs to be fixed, changed or replaced to protect themselves, their families, workers and neighbours.

Miller noted that CASA offers free courses and resources on farm safety.

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Chuck Penner, founder of LeftField Commodity Research, spoke at the 2026 Canadian Crops Convention about supply and demand in the Canadian grains sector and how a strong 2025 could lead to a complex 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian farmers will soon be planting the 2026 crops, with large old crop supplies complicating the market outlook.

“We talk in ag markets always about cycles,” said Penner. “The market is cycling. And so right now, we’re in a supply-heavy situation. But is that going to continue? I would argue ‘no.’”

“What we have is this comfortable carryover,” he continued noting that can lead to a complacent mindset in grain markets.

Canada produced an aggregated 106 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds, pulses and other crops in 2025, 10 million more than the previous year.

“So, what are we doing with that grain?” Penner asked.

Farmer deliveries are already up three million tonnes over last year. Exports are at 25 million tonnes, up from the five-year average by around 2.5 million.

“That’s good, but it still doesn’t dispose of 10 million tonnes more production,” Penner said. “If we keep this pace up, and there are some really good signs that we will keep this pace up, then we will work that down to some degree.”

Despite what Penner referred to as a “heavy-supply mindset” hanging over the sector, prices are still moving, and he expects them to continue firming up.

Many crops see seasonal price peaks in the spring, but Penner cautioned that those commodities will start to tip over in early summer “and everybody’s going to freak out and talk about the heavy supplies again.”

One problem now is there is not much urgency in attracting acreage.

In tighter supply years, such as after the 2021 drought, buyers were desperate and some started contracting for 2022 new crop in October and November already. However, this year, the sentiment is “we’ll buy it when we need it,” said Penner.

Resolving heavy supply

For some major crops like barley, canola and soybeans, stocks-to-use ratios are wide, but Penner said those ratios will likely be a bit lower at the end of 2026-27.

“There’s a key reason for that,” he said. “What happens when we drop back to either average or to trend yields? It basically wipes out. It’s a far bigger influence on the supply situation for next year than acreage shifts.”

While acreage shifts are interesting, a return to average yields in Western Canada after the bumper crops of 2025-26 would “do a whole lot in terms of resolving the heavy supply situation that we have,” said Penner.

“If we move to an average yield or even a trend yield in those major crops, the supply numbers get close to the five-year average,” he said adding that supplies of oats, corn and soybeans may even become tight.

What to plant this year?

Penner said his recommendation for 2026 was to plant oats.

“If you all rush out and plant oats now, of course that effect is gone. But barley and durum supplies should remain comfortable. It’s the pulses and special crops that are going to take a couple of years to really resolve the heavy supply situation.”

Currently, he said global supplies will favour the buyer.

“2025-26 was a good year globally. No question,” he said. “The question is, can it repeat?”

Penner offered general market thoughts on crops for 2026.

Wheat

Wheat saw record global and Canadian production with prices remaining relatively flat. Penner pointed out wheat is almost never touched by trade disruptions or tariffs. Canada is also exporting durum almost at last year’s record pace, even with strong European and North African crops.

Barley

Barley had a record yield last year with the largest Canadian crop since 2020-21, and prices are rising. Penner said Canada has strong barley exports to countries like China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Oats

Penner said the main concern with oats is a weaker export pace. Other export markets like Australia and the U.S., which saw its biggest oat crop in over 10 years, could challenge Canada. He said he thought soft prices could discourage acreage in 2026 and leave Canada with “some really tight supplies of oats.”

Canola

Canola production and yields were strong globally, leading to increased supplies, but according to Penner, “the demand side is the bigger picture.” With the market more certain following U.S. biofuels and potential tariffs, prices have continued to rise. He added if canola drops back to average levels, supplies will tighten and demand will strengthen.

Peas

Peas also had near-record yields in Canada which, combined with a strong Russian crop, have led to a global glut. Though imports from India are not what they have been, Penner said other buyers like China have also stepped in. He said there is a sizable carryover into 2026, especially for green peas.

Lentils

Penner said demand is fairly static for green lentils but could be stronger for red lentils. On both fronts, he said it must get stronger to deal with supply, but it is “hard to see that happening.” He added there is a huge supply of green lentils now hanging over the market, but “the red picture will be more balanced.”

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