Ample global supply weighed on prices of staple crops such as corn and soybeans in the past two years and eroded earnings for agribusiness groups like LDC and U.S. rivals ADM, Bunge Global and Cargill.

LDC said its core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $1.83 billion (C$2.51 billion) last year, against $1.88 billion in 2024.

Group net profit fell to $653 million (C$894.3 million) from $726 million.

“Markets were marked by ongoing geopolitical crises, the implementation of new tariffs on international trade flows, and concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth,” it said in an annual report.

Average prices for LDC’s main commodities were lower, with the exception of coffee. However, shipped volumes rose sharply, helped by expansion in capacity and strong demand for corn and soybeans, it said.

Volumes jumped 10.6 per cent year on year, helping net sales rise to $53.2 billion (C$72.9 billion) from $50.6 billion the prior year.

Middle East conflict not significantly felt

LDC doubled capital expenditure to $2 billion (C$2.7 billion), it said.

Uncertainty over U.S. biofuel policy, meanwhile, weighed on the performance of its vegetable oils business, LDC said, echoing comments by its peers.

The Middle East conflict has not significantly impacted LDC’s activities so far, the group said.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has unsettled agricultural markets by creating tensions in fertilizer supply and maritime transport, threatening to raise food costs.

Bunge said earlier this month it was exploring alternative shipping routes because of the conflict.

Benchmark grain and soybean prices in Chicago climbed to multi-month and multi-year highs last week as the war sent crude oil soaring, a departure from depressed levels seen in grains in the past two years.

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For winter soft wheat, France’s main cereal crop, the ministry now expects the 2026 area to reach 4.59 million hectares (11.3 million acres), up slightly from its initial projection of 4.56 million in December, it said on Tuesday.

The revised estimate was up 2.8 per cent from the area harvested in 2025, though 0.3 per cent below the average of the past five years, the ministry said in a report.

For winter rapeseed, the country’s largest oilseed crop, it raised its estimate for this year’s area to 1.37 million hectares (3.39 million acres) from 1.34 million projected in December.

That was now eight per cent above the 2025 area and 11.6 per cent above the five-year average.

Analysts have anticipated an increase in rapeseed planting in France and across Europe given more favourable prices than for cereals, as well as strong yields in last summer’s harvest.

Favourable autumn weather had also raised expectations that the soft wheat area would hold steady, despite falling prices.

Among other winter crops, the ministry pegged the 2026 winter barley area at 1.26 million hectares (3.11 million acres), compared to 1.23 million previously and up 5.3 per cent on the year.

For winter durum wheat, however, the estimated 2026 area was reduced slightly, to 196,000 hectares (484,327 acres) from 199,000 forecast in December. That left the projected area marginally below last year’s level and nearly 16 per cent below the five-year average.

Wheat and rapeseed are almost entirely sown as winter crops in France, whereas barley production includes a significant portion of spring-grown crop.

Winter crops were generally in good condition so far, the ministry added.

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The rush of demand for European feed barley has provided relief for producers struggling with low prices in a heavily supplied global grain market.

Reversing the usual price structure, feed barley is attracting better prices than milling wheat and similar rates to malting barley, used for beer ingredient malt.

“It’s a strange place for the market,” said Brent Atthill, head of consultancy RMI Analytics, citing a “perfect storm” of strong feed demand in the Middle East and China, limited availability of Black Sea barley and weak brewing demand in Europe.

The European Commission increased its monthly forecast of EU barley exports in 2025/26 by nine per cent last week to 11 million metric tons, which would be the highest since 2015/16.

In France, early-season shipments to China have been followed by steady demand from North Africa and the Middle East. Loadings include a rare cargo for Turkey, LSEG data shows.

Feed barley likely to revert to cheaper grain

Turkey’s switch this season from barley exporter to importer has contributed to market tensions. The country is due to hold an import tender next Wednesday.

An import purchase by Algeria this week could also yield more EU sales, with German and Polish supplies seen in contention, a German trader said. Algeria has not bought French grain since 2024 because of diplomatic tensions.

German barley shipments so far this year include about 30,000 tons for Algeria, 60,000 tons for Saudi Arabia and 8,000 tons for Iraq, another trader said.

“Both Germany and France have made large export shipments of barley so far this year and I expect more to be on the way,” the second trader said.

The export window for western European barley could soon close, however. Supplies in France are tightening while crops from southern hemisphere harvests boost options for importers.

Forward prices for the 2026 harvest suggest feed barley will revert to its role as a cheaper grain, with double-digit discounts compared with malting barley and milling wheat, traders and analysts added.

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The outbreak, the first since 1994, coincides with Spanish efforts to court Beijing and gain market share in the pork sector.

WHY IT MATTERS: African swine fever has been devastating for pork sectors in countries where infections have been found. Wild pigs — which were found to be infected in Spain — are also a potential disease vector of concern for the Canadian hog industry.

But any ban could be limited in scope after China and Spain signed a deal this month that would mean China would only restrict imports from an affected region rather than from all of Spain. Barcelona is in the Catalonia region, which accounts for about eight per cent of the country’s pork farms, according to Agriculture Ministry figures.

Spain is the European Union’s leading pork producer, accounting for roughly a quarter of the bloc’s output, ahead of Germany, with annual pork exports of about 3.5 billion euros (C$5.7 billion).

“It’s not good news. The European market is already struggling after a 20 per cent drop in prices since July,” said Jean-Paul Simier, a meat analyst at French commodities research group Cyclope.

“There is a risk of an embargo against the biggest EU pork exporter, notably in Asia, and China in particular.”

Spain’s farmers’ association Asaja said the sector was ready to face the outbreak, but said authorities needed to address an “out of control presence” of wild animals such as boars and rabbits in rural areas that risked contaminating livestock.

“We have spent years modernizing farms, reinforcing biosecurity and making our operations among the most advanced in the world,” it said.

Spanish pork group Interporc said it was working with Catalan and national authorities on cases limited to wild boar, with a 20-km surveillance zone, showing Spain’s strong animal-health monitoring.

The ministry said it had notified the European Union and activated emergency measures in the affected area, urging pig farms to tighten security measures while investigators try to find the source of the infection.

The virus, which is harmless to humans but deadly for pigs, has been spreading westwards in Europe in recent years.

Germany’s sizeable pork industry has already been rattled, with many overseas countries imposing bans on its pork. And in recent months Croatia has been trying to contain an outbreak.

— Additional reporting by Emma Pinedo, Corina Pons, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Ella Cao in Beijing.

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WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian barley exports are running 46 per cent ahead of the year-ago pace, helping meet the global demand.

Feed barley, which represents most of the market for barley, typically trades at a steep discount to bread wheat.

Its overall price is lower than last year, against the background of a heavily supplied grain sector. But its relative strength against wheat has brought higher-than-expected costs for buyers, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East.

Despite a larger European Union harvest this year, availability of barley has shrunk due to brisk French shipments to China, slow farmer selling elsewhere, and Turkey’s switch from exporter to importer after a poor crop.

“Barley is currently like gold,” a German trader said.

Traders said west EU and Baltic feed barley prices were around the same as wheat at between US$221 and $226 a tonne FOB for December loading. Black Sea barley prices were higher with Russian and Ukrainian at around $227-$229 a tonne FOB.

France has already shipped half its projected non-EU barley exports for 2025/26, including nearly 900,000 tonnes to China, and is still loading for Saudi Arabia, LSEG data shows.

With French farmers largely sold out, export premiums have risen above wheat, traders said. Black Sea supplies are also dwindling, leaving Germany to fill gaps, though reluctant farmer selling is maintaining supply tension.

While barley is rarely so highly priced versus wheat, absolute levels remain below last year amid ample global grain supply. Some farmers are holding out for better returns, with recent purchases from Algeria, Tunisia and Turkey to be covered.

“With these tenders and other demand some sellers are speculating that by January they could get at least $10 a tonne more for barley,” the trader said.

Illustrating tight supply, Jordan received no offers in a tender for 120,000 tonnes on Wednesday.

But some say large crops in Argentina and Australia could soon dampen the market and prevent higher costs being felt down the food chain.

“These international barley prices may well cool down after Christmas,” British merchant Frontier Agriculture said.

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LDC — commonly known as Dreyfus and part of the ABCD quartet of global crop merchants alongside ADM, Bunge Global and Cargill — said first-half volumes were up 4.4 per cent on the year, contributing to a 2.3 per cent rise in sales to US$26.2 billion.

Core EBITDA profit, however, fell 6.6 per cent to $987 million while net profit dropped 14.5 per cent to $418 million.

The group’s coffee division stood out by posting higher operating profit, supported by increased volumes and prices. But most other units, including grains and oilseeds, recorded lower results due to weaker prices, trade tensions and an uncertain economic climate, LDC said in an interim financial report.

The company increased capital expenditure in the first half to US$521 million from US$299 million a year earlier, notably to expand oilseed processing, including in North America.

LDC is set to expand its global oilseed capacity further after acquiring assets in Hungary and Poland from Bunge. It said the initial price of the acquisition was US$483 million.

Higher first-half spending contributed to a rise in LDC’s adjusted net debt to $2.4 billion from $1 billion at the end of 2024, it said.

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China is the world’s top wheat grower and also imports large amounts of grain when domestic supply falls short of demand.

Earlier this week, Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s crop, issued a risk warning as hot, dry weather threatened the wheat growing in its fields.

Chinese buyers have purchased four or five 55,000-ton shipments of wheat from Australia for delivery in July or August and around 200,000 tons from Canada, sources at two major trading firms in Australia said. The wheat is of milling quality.

The bookings from Australia were the first made by China from the country since last year, said one of the traders.

COFCO, the state-owned Chinese firm that handles most of the country’s wheat imports, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Wheat imports lower in recent years

China has in recent years been one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, buying in around 11 million tons worth $3.5 billion in 2024. Australia and Canada are typically its biggest suppliers.

But shipments slowed sharply after China reaped large wheat and corn harvests last year and have since remained low.

China delayed or redirected shipments from Australia earlier this year and imported less than a million tons of wheat in the seven months to March 31, Chinese customs data accessed through Trade Data Monitor show.

One of the sources said their company had lowered its forecast of Chinese 2025 wheat production by around 5 million tons but there was no guarantee that more purchases would follow because China has large wheat inventories.

“China is well self-sufficient in feed grains this crop year with heavy stocks,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth, adding that faltering economic growth in China was also depressing demand for grains.

Speculation of Canadian wheat sales to China has been rumbling around Winnipeg, Canada’s grain industry capital, but with few details, according to traders.

Barley also booked

Chinese importers also booked a large amount of barley, according to traders.

Some said that six panamax bulk carriers carrying around 360,000 tons of French or Ukrainian new-crop barley had been sold for delivery in July or August, with others putting the volume much higher at around 1 million tons, also for shipment this summer.

“Chinese wheat and barley import buying has been very quiet in the past year and these are the first major deals I have seen in many months,” a German trader said.

Feed barley purchases with optional origin were from Ukraine or France. The deals were done at a price of around US$250-$254 a tonne delivered to China, one trader said.

— Reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg, Peter Hobson in Canberra, Gus Trompiz in Paris, and Ed White in Winnipeg. Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing.

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LDC, whose competitors include ADM, Bunge and Cargill, said in a results statement that its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $1.88 billion (C$2.69 billion), down 15 per cent compared with 2023. Net income fell 28 per cent to $726 million (C$1.04 billion).

Why it matters: Louis Dreyfus company is a major buyer of Canadian crops

Net sales were stable at $50.6 billion (C$72.5 billion), supported by a 17 per cent rise in volumes.

The group’s grains and oilseeds business recorded lower operating profit after strong 2023 performance, with its corn and soybean activities affected by a context of low volatility, LDC added in an annual report.

Like its peers, it also pointed to reduced oilseed crushing margins in China and the United States, with the U.S. market affected by uncertainty over biofuel policy.

Global prices of corn, wheat and soybeans last year slipped to their lowest since 2020 amid rising supplies and signs of slowing demand from China, a turnaround from high prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

ADM and Bunge both reported lower fourth-quarter earnings.

Trade war to pressure earnings

Crop traders also face international trade volatility as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes tariffs as an economic and diplomatic tool.

Bunge warned that its 2025 earnings could sink to the lowest in six years, partly due to trade tensions.

Tougher market conditions have led Cargill to embark on a push to lower its headcount by five per cent and ADM to plan a reduction of up to 700 jobs.

LDC said its coffee business recorded higher earnings, supported by increased margins and volumes against a backdrop of weather setbacks to crops, while its sugar division’s profits declined as prices were more range-bound than the previous year.

LDC has partly shifted its focus towards the consumer end of the food chain to be less reliant on commodity trading.

Last year, it bought an ingredients business from chemicals maker BASF, launched a juice brand and created a unit trading in pulses, which include beans, lentils and peas.

The group said it increased capital expenditure sharply last year to $1 billion from $636 million (C$1.43 billion from $C911 million) in 2023.

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U.S. President Donald Trump said he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries next week, confirming a report by Reuters. Grain traders worry the duties may spark retaliation from importers that would dent U.S. crop sales.

“Any type of moves like this may have a little pushback in some ways against the U.S.,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at commodity brokerage Allendale. “Certainly, from a psychological basis, any evolving tariff is a question.”

Trump announced tariffs of 25 per cent on Canada and Mexico on Saturday but delayed them after a negative reaction from investors. U.S. levies against China drew a measured response from Beijing that did not include tariffs on crops in a relief for grain traders.

Most-active CBOT March corn futures ended down 7-3/4 cents at $4.87-1/2 a bushel but remained close to a 15-month peak of $4.98-1/2 reached on Wednesday.

Soybean futures fell 11 cents in the March contract to $10.49-1/2 a bushel after rising on Wednesday to a six-month peak of $10.79-3/4. March wheat finished 5 cents weaker at $5.82-3/4 a bushel, down from a 3-1/2 month high of $5.92-1/2.

There was a “risk off” mentality in the markets ahead of the weekend and following recent gains, traders said.

Improved rains in Argentina helped pressure prices after hot, dry weather in January, they said. Showers this week delivered the country’s soy crop “from the inferno,” according to the Rosario grains exchange.

Argentina is the world’s biggest exporter of soymeal and soyoil and No. 3 corn exporter.

Traders also kept an eye on cold weather in Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, due to concerns about potential damage to its crop.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is slated to update global supply and demand estimates in a monthly report. Global wheat imports are likely to drop this year.

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Short covering by commodity funds helped propel prices higher, they said, while corn and soy futures were nearly flat.

Traders watched conditions for wheat crops in Russia and Ukraine because they are major global suppliers. Colder weather projected from next week rekindled worries over potential losses, they said, with wheat seen vulnerable after a mild winter so far.

Commodity funds recently held a net short position in CBOT wheat, betting that prices will fall, and added to bets that corn and soy prices will rise.

“Funds are long corn and soybeans, and wheat is trying to catch up,” said Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting.

“Typically, you don’t see them short one complex and long the other two, so when there’s buying it gravitates toward that one.”

Most-active CBOT March wheat was up 15-1/2 cents at $5.87-3/4 a bushel.

CBOT corn futures edged up two cents in the March contract at $4.95-1/4 a bushel, and March soybeans crept 3-1/2 cents higher to $10.60-1/2 a bushel.

On Wednesday, corn touched its highest price since October 2023 and soybeans climbed to their highest level since July 2024.

Grain markets have been buoyed this week by the suspension of planned U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico and by measured Chinese counter-tariffs that did not include crops.

Traders have been concerned that tariffs could spark retaliatory moves against U.S. grain, hurting sales to major importers like China and Mexico.

President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said he will review China’s compliance with a “Phase 1” trade deal signed during Trump’s first term in which Beijing agreed to buy more American farm products. China has not lived up to the agreement, and it will be difficult to enforce, analysts said.

“How do you force an importer to buy more when they don’t need it?” Setzer said.

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