The intergovernmental body, in a monthly update, forecast total grains production at a record 2.461 billion metric tons, up 31 million tons from its previous projection.

“The 2025/26 total grains harvest will smash all existing records. As well as bumper maize (corn) and wheat outturns, barley and sorghum crops are also expected at multi-season peaks,” the IGC said.

The report said about half the extra production may be channelled into consumption but almost as much might also be added to year-end stocks.

Global wheat production was upwardly revised to 842 million tons, up from 830 million seen previously, driven partly by improved outlooks for Argentina and Canada.

The IGC upgraded its forecast for Argentina’s wheat crop to 27.7 million tons, up from a previous projection of 23.5 million and now broadly in line with the current U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 27.5 million.

Canada’s wheat crop was revised to 40 million tons from 36.6 million. The USDA earlier this month put Canadian wheat production at 39.95 million.

Global corn production in 2025/26 was increased by 15 million tons to 1.313 billion tons driven mainly by an upgrade for the U.S. (432.3 million tons from 419 million).

Earlier this month, the USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production, surprising the consensus among analysts for a reduction and sending Chicago prices lower.

— Reporting by Nigel Hunt

The post IGC raises 2025/26 world grains forecast to record 2.5 billion tons appeared first on Grainews.

Ellis, 38, a fourth-generation farmer in Wawanesa, Manitoba, credits investments in pricey systems including minimum and zero-till farming which help protect soil; tile drainage, an underground system to prevent flooding; slow-release fertilizer pellets which are more effective, and advice from a professional agronomist on weedkillers.

“We are constantly making little tweaks,” he said. “That’s how we’re going to be able to keep fighting the changing climate.”

Across much of western Canada, farmers like Ellis have been turning out strikingly better crops despite hotter and drier conditions — far above what farmers in the region could have expected in better conditions years ago, according to Canadian government data, thanks in part to widespread embrace of climate adaptation strategies.

While greater yields in Canada and elsewhere are depressing global prices for grains, they are keeping many farmers in business.

Record harvests despite drought

Adaptation practices – which tend to be costly and require cutting edge technologies – have enabled many farmers to ride out a drought that began in 2020.

Earlier this month, the Canadian government announced record harvests of spring wheat and canola for 2025. And because most of the grains produced in Canada are shipped and consumed abroad, those gains have major implications for the rest of the world’s ability to feed itself affordably.

Australia, another large global grain exporter, has also reported rising crop yields despite drier conditions.

This combination of methods and technology is not just helping Canadian growers keep up with climate change, but stay ahead of its ravages, according to interviews with 25 farmers, scientists and agriculture industry leaders, and a review of more than a dozen academic papers.

Spring wheat, used to make high-quality bread, yielded 58.8 bushels per acre this year, according to the government data release. That’s a gain of 77 per cent from 30 years ago, based on a three-year average. Canola yields nearly doubled, reaching 44.7 bushels per acre, also based on a 1994-1996 average.

While most climate science paints a bleak picture for global food supply, with a study in Nature this year forecasting up to 40 per cent reduction in North America’s wheat harvest by 2100, the agricultural experts Reuters interviewed said that with climate adaptation strategies the Prairies can continue to produce bigger and bigger crops in the future.

“Back in the day, 30, 35 bushels an acre (for wheat) would have been a bumper crop,” said Rob Saik, a Canadian agronomist who has consulted with governments all over the world. “Now it’s an abject failure.”

A notoriously difficult region

Even before climate change brought more unpredictable and extreme weather, western Canada was a notoriously difficult region to farm.

The central Prairies, a land of green and golden short grasses and thin, scrubby brush, get only about half as much rainfall as Iowa, and have a much shorter growing season. Climate change has made it even harder. Environment and Climate Change Canada says the country is warming at double the global average and that extreme events have become more common. On the Prairies, annual snowfall, a key source of spring moisture, has declined and summer extremes of rain and drought have increased, with rain often coming in enormous torrents, or not at all.

“Extreme events, like floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and severe storms, are increasingly damaging to our economy, ecosystems and built environment,” the federal department said in a 2024 report.

Incremental gains, not miracles

Scientists and agronomists say Canada’s gains don’t come from a single, dramatic factor, but from steady, incremental progress with farming methods and inputs.

Many seeds now come stacked with insect, disease and weed resistance, thanks to conventional breeding as well as genetic modification. Fertilizer application is designed to minimize disturbance to the soil surface by being placed at the same time as the seed goes in.

Fungicides, weedkillers and nutrients allow crops to outcompete their natural enemies.

Some of the strategies recall pre-industrial practices, such as intercropping, growing multiple crops at the same time.

Experts also credit automation such as self-guiding tractors that apply fertilizer at different rates based on soil tests and satellite mapping.

One family’s adaptation evolution

The Mowbray family ventured into adaptive practices four decades ago with tile drainage, laying a small stretch of perforated pipe designed to take the water down into the soil rather than spread it across the surface.

Over the last 12 years, Scott Mowbray, 46, has expanded the drainage system to about 800 acres of his land.

Meanwhile, the Mowbrays gradually took up minimum till. By 2010, the 2,000-acre farm was entirely no-till, leaving the soil unplowed and with stubble standing as a moisture trap and a barrier against the wind that otherwise carries the topsoil away.

The innovations allow the Mowbrays to “pull off yields twice what we used to with half as much rain,” Mowbray said, producing “incredible” volumes of spring wheat, peas and rye.

Technology’s steep price tag

Much of what has allowed Canadian farmers to deal with climate change involves expensive and complex equipment. A smart combine costs upwards of $1 million. A high-speed-data-enabled tractor and seeding drill cost around $2 million.

Kip Eideberg, senior vice president of government and industry relations for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, which represents John Deere DE , Case New Holland CNH and other manufacturers, said precision systems have saved Canadian farmers nine per cent in herbicide and pesticides, six per cent in fuel, and four per cent in water use. That saves money for farmers operating on razor-thin margins, he said.

Most large-scale farmers have access to such technology in their tractors, combines, sprayers and management computers, Terry Griffin, a Kansas State University agricultural economist, said. But an older generation of farmers often doesn’t want to take on digital challenges, while younger farmers don’t have the money for machines or agronomic advice.

One obstacle to greater adoption is rural broadband access. Mowbray can’t count on being able to run a constant stream of data from his big farm machines. He can’t even call his farmhouse from his cellphone. His farm relies on two-way radios instead.

“It’s a simple thing but hugely important when you are in the field and might need a pick-up but can’t get a call through to the house,” he said.

Seed science – the invisible factor

Another equally important factor for farmers’ gains: breeding genetically superior crops that are hardier, drought-tolerant and produce bigger yields.

“We’re just starting down that path,” said Rick Mitzel, CEO of farmer-and-industry-funded mustard seed development organization Mustard 21. The company is developing drought-tolerant plants as an alternative to canola. The varieties “come out of the ground quicker, develop roots quicker, get leafing faster,” Mitzel told Reuters in an interview.

The farmer-controlled South East Research Farm in Redvers, Saskatchewan has been testing crops such as camelina, which is most likely to be planted in Canada for sustainable aviation fuel, that could offer farmers better yields and more resilience.

Executive director Lana Shaw doesn’t think climate change will happen without losses to the Canadian farm community. Some farmers will choose to not adapt and will simply retire. Some will adapt and fail. And some farmers will adapt and thrive.

“Under pressure,” she said, “they can adapt very fast.”

The post How Canada’s farmers are producing record crops despite droughts and floods appeared first on Grainews.

Quattro Ventures in Alberta is one of very few. Emily Ford, senior agronomist at the joint-venture farm where mint is cultivated for the essential oils market, knows of only one other Prairie farm producing this specialty crop.

Ford said this presents some unique challenges for agronomists like herself.

“When you are growing other specialty crops, let’s say potatoes in southern Alberta for example, you usually have a wealth of peers and experts to phone up when something looks funny or you have a problem,” Ford said.

Why it matters: If a given crop isn’t often commercially grown on the Prairies, that doesn’t necessarily mean it was never possible.

With mint, there isn’t a network of people Ford can readily turn to for help. She noted some agronomic information is available through organizations, such as the Mint Industry Research Council in the United States, but much of what Ford understands about commercial mint production has been largely self-taught.

“I didn’t know anything about mint five years ago until I started working at Quattro,” Ford said, adding trial and error has been an important aspect of the learning process.

“If you are given the opportunity to work with a crop like this, you just dive in, read as much as you can, lean on the people who know something about it, and don’t be afraid to make mistakes. You have to work with farmers to figure it out together, because mint is so different from other crops that are really commonly grown,” she said.

“I think agronomists become agronomists because we’re curious people who want to find out how things work, so I can say this has been a fun challenge.”

Community curiosity around this novel crop has been strong as well. Ford noted a lot of producers in the area have visited Quattro Ventures so they could get a first-hand look at commercial mint production.

“We do a lot of farm tours, but so far no one has taken the plunge and tried it.”

Located in the Bow Island/Burdett area in southeastern Alberta, Quattro Ventures comprises five family farms cultivating a diverse array of crops across dryland and irrigated acres. This includes dill, another speciality crop grown for the essential oils market, as well as cereals, seed canola, peas and potatoes.

Ford helps run the 3,000-acre operation as part of the farm’s management team, which includes both owners and non-owners. Quattro Ventures was founded by the Palliser Triangle Marketing Group, a collection of forward-thinking farmers intent on exploring new agricultural marketing opportunities. The idea behind it was to unite the strengths of individual family farms while leveraging the group’s collective knowledge, resources and markets.

Essential oils are highly concentrated, aromatic liquids extracted from plants that capture the plant’s fragrance and flavour. The spearmint and peppermint essential oils produced by Quattro Ventures go into such things as candy, chewing gum, toothpaste and cosmetics, while the farm’s dill essential oil is used for dill pickles.

According to Ford, India and the U.S. Pacific Northwest are the main areas that produce mint for the essential oils market. In Ford’s estimation, Quattro Ventures has grown to the point where it now produces 25 per cent of North America’s mint oil.

One reason more Prairie farms haven’t followed Quattro Ventures’ lead could be that commercial mint production isn’t for the faint of heart.

Mint is a perennial rhizome crop that propagates through rhizome cuttings, not seed, so specialized agricultural machinery is required for planting and harvesting. Specialized processing equipment is also needed to extract and distill the oil from the harvested mint leaves.

Ford acknowledged some farmers may shy away from the risks associated with producing an unfamiliar crop such as mint, given the hefty expense of getting everything up and running.

“It’s a big investment. You need to have specialized equipment and facilities to process the oil and get it to market, and it’s very expensive.”

Area well-suited for mint

According to Ford, Quattro Ventures’s location in southeastern Alberta has several attributes that make it a prime area for producing high-quality mint oil.

One is linked to where it is situated in the Canadian brown soil zone. “Because of the soil types we have here, we produce a certain oil that meets quality standards the flavour houses or brokers are looking for with purity, menthol content, aroma, all of those sorts of things.”

Growing conditions in the area are another major plus. Mint requires long, warm summer days and cooler nights for optimal oil production. Quattro Ventures fits the bill, with an extended growing window of 124 to 132 frost-free days and average crop heat units in the 2,400 range.

As well, mint is a thirsty crop requiring reliable, consistent moisture, especially during peak summer heat. Quattro Ventures relies heavily on irrigation infrastructure provided by the St. Mary River system — something that’s particularly important within the drought-prone Palliser Triangle region where the farm is located.

“You can’t grow mint without irrigation,” Ford said. “At peak crop staging with the hot, dry weather, you’re looking at an inch to an inch and a half of water a week.”

Planting and field management

Each mint production cycle at Quattro Ventures starts with disease-free tissue culture plantlets the farm gets from a specialty nursery. The plantlets aren’t planted in fields right away but are placed in nursery blocks where they serve as a source of clean rhizome rootstock.

“Once those plantlets are established, the next spring we go back and dig up some of the rhizomes from that clean stock. We use a modified potato digger to dig up them up and then they’re planted into a production field.

“You only need one inch of a viable rhizome to create a mint plant. The first year we really focus on establishment and then after that, we’re looking at production and are harvesting a crop every year.”

The mint fields, once established, will remain productive for up to five years, Ford said, adding “because it is a five-year crop, there is no tillage on that piece of land for five years.” She noted this kind of tillage reprieve provides a nice break for fields, particularly since Quattro Ventures grows some heavier tillage crops, such as sugar beets and potatoes.

“I think that’s really beneficial for soil health, not just for the mint crop but for all the other subsequent crops we grow on that land.”

According to Ford, mint is a heavy feeding crop for fertilizer, which is applied to Quattro Ventures mint fields in the spring. Typically, each acre receives 120 to 150 pounds of nitrogen, along with 100 pounds of potassium and 80 pounds of phosphorus. Because mint doesn’t grow in rows, fertilizer is distributed through broadcast applications.

In recent years, Quattro Ventures has started using environmentally smart nitrogen products for its nitrogen applications in mint fields. Ford said the slow-release fertilizer allows nutrient availability to be better matched with crop uptake. It has also meant fertigation, something the farm has practiced in the past, is no longer needed.

The mint at Quattro Ventures is typically harvested in late July to early August. Swathed crops are chopped with forage harvesters and loaded into specialized tubs, which connect directly to steam lines at a central distillation facility at the farm where the essential oils are extracted.

Crop residues left over from the distilling process serve a very useful purpose, Ford said. They spread the “mint plugs” on the fields to increase organic matter and remediate areas that are erosion-prone.

“It is a nice soil addition, with very similar characteristics to well-composted cattle manure. And there aren’t any restrictions on what fields you can put it on because it’s clean. It has been steamed to 300 degrees, so essentially all the weed seeds are not viable.”

Weed, disease and pest management

According to Ford, weed control in mint is critical, especially after it is first planted in a production field.

She noted because mint is a broadleaf crop, there are limited options for broadleaf weed control. As a result, Ford said, “we really focus on the first couple of years trying to get weed free. Usually by the fifth year, it’s a tough time to try to control those broadleaf weeds.”

Careful herbicide selection is also essential because of rotational considerations for the following crops. “Re-cropping restrictions mean there are only certain chemicals we can apply in the first couple of years of a mint stand.”

As far as disease threats go, powdery mildew is an important one to watch for in mint because it is a heavy canopy crop. Powdery mildew is a fungal infection that can cause mint leaves to wilt and fall off.

“It is imperative to maintain those leaves, because the leaves are where the oil is. You don’t want them on the ground,” Ford said, adding early fungicide applications are used as a preventative measure at Quattro Ventures to help protect against powdery mildew.

Ford noted verticillium wilt is also on the farm’s radar since it has been a problem for mint producers elsewhere, particularly in areas when mint has been cultivated for much longer than it has in southeastern Alberta.

“We have been lucky not to see it here. That’s something you have to really watch out for, because there’s nothing to be done about verticillium wilt once it shows up.”

According to Ford, disease control efforts are hampered due to very few products with minor use registration being available for a specialty crop such as mint. It’s a big reason Quattro Ventures always ensures it is sourcing disease-free mint stock.

Ford said while mint is generally resistant to major insect pressure, spider mites can emerge during hot, dry spells. They can harm mint plants by sucking the oil out of the leaves.

However, spider mites usually only appear near the field edges, Ford noted, adding the bugs avoid moisture so they can be effectively controlled with irrigation.

The post How a southern Alberta farm maintains mint condition appeared first on Grainews.

The 2025 budget will be the Carney government’s first.

Change in approach expected

“I think the business community would be shocked if there wasn’t a dramatic departure and approach,” said CropLife Canada CEO Pierre Petelle said.

“Everything we’ve heard for the past year signaled a pretty significant departure from the previous government.”

The Trudeau government’s 2024 budget drew mixed reactions from the agriculture community with some groups praising its action on tax and climate challenges and others saying it fell short of farmers’ concerns. The 2024 fall economic statement made few mentions of agriculture.

Tyler McCann, managing director of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI), said he also sees a difference in the how the current government approaches agriculture.

“I think if you hear what (Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Heath) McDonald says, it is very clearly a growth-oriented approach,” McCann said. “He is very much concerned about the economics of the sector. He’s very much concerned about trade and economic viability. He talks about innovation. He talks about regulatory reform.”

McCann said he sees two main expectations for the budget within the sector: supports for those impacted by Canada’s various ongoing trade disputes and a set of cuts and sacrifices.

“If you look across what (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) spends its money on, it’s pretty easy. There’s only so many buckets that can get cut from.”

McCann said he expected cuts to environmental programming and staffing.

He added the cost-cutting may not be as aggressive as initially expected, and next year will likely see a budget with more drastic cuts. This is largely due to the trade uncertainties Canada is still facing.

Non-financial asks

Improved regulatory approval timelines for government bodies like the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) and Pest Management Regulatory Agency (PMRA) were among CropLife’s priorities according to an Oct. 30 statement.

“We saw the Liberal platform mentioning the mandates of CFIA and PMRA … should be broadened to include economic considerations,” Petelle said. “We’re asking for that to actually happen.”

“The good thing about our asks (is) they’re not financial asks,” he added. “With the austerity coming and the focus on our deficit, we feel that this is the perfect time to take some of these requests seriously.”

McCann said he saw this as a possibility.

“There’s a lot of opportunity for the government to do non-cost measures, or to take money that they’re already spending and spend it differently in ways,” he said.

“I think that there’s broad agreement, even within government, that their first round of work on regulatory reform was very underwhelming and left a lot of work on the table, and certainly the budget would be a good place to do it.”

What agriculture needs in the budget, McCann said, is a sign the government will follow through in its mandates and act on regulatory reform.

In the Oct. 30 release, CropLife also called for the government to “put food security and affordability at the forefront,” and “Institute cutting-edge regulatory practices,” by “reviews and best regulatory practices from trusted, risk-based jurisdiction.”

Agriculture as a national priority

In June, over 25 agricultural organizations, including the Canadian Federation of Agriculture, Grain Growers of Canada, the Canadian Cattle Association and the Canadian Meat Council, sent a letter to Carney welcoming the government’s focus on strengthening the economy while also requesting strategic investment in the sector. It called for agriculture to be made a national priority.

Petelle said it was significant for so many commodity groups, from supply managed sectors to grain growers, to align on a message.

“These groups don’t always align on policy positions, but what they do align on is a call to action,” he said. “So, I think that that speaks volumes.”

Trade also continued to be a priority. The Canadian Federation of Agriculture called on the government to support trade efforts like the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), to protect farm inputs like fertilizer from countermeasures in response to U.S. tariffs, and to ensure agriculture’s place in the new Trade Diversification Corridor Fund.

The federation also asked the government to support pathways to permanent residency for temporary foreign workers, to modernize the Canadian Grain Act and to mandate “Agricultural Impact Assessments (AIAs) for all federal infrastructure projects, including defence-related projects, and federal land claim decisions that may affect the quality or availability of agricultural land in Canada.”

The Canadian Meat Council asked the government to reduce regulatory burdens by modernizing Canada’s enhanced feed ban, by extending Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) applicability to 2 years and to invest in African Swine Fever (ASF) preparedness and recovery.

The Canadian Organic Growers released an action plan Oct. 29, ahead of the budget’s release, which called on the government to adopt a plan to “unlock the sector’s full potential.” Its main action points included accelerating growth and innovation in organic production, growing markets and demand and strengthening policy, regulatory and data infrastructure.

In an Oct. 31 news release, the Conservative Party of Canada called on the government to bring back the Prairie interswitching pilot in the budget. This would include making it permanent and extending it to regions not included in the original program, which it said would provide farmers with the fair rail access they need.

The post Canadian agriculture’s asks from the 2025 federal budget appeared first on Grainews.

The losses to crops such as cotton and soybean are expected to slow agricultural growth, boost farmers’ debt and cap rural consumption, which had been set to rise after New Delhi slashed taxes on hundreds of consumer items.

“We had hoped to harvest 10 to 12 quintals of soybean per acre, but now we’ll be lucky to get 2 to 3 quintals — and even that will require significant additional expenses,” said farmer Kishore Hangargekar. A quintal is a unit equivalent to 100 kg (220 lb).

He was speaking after two days of unrelenting rain flooded his fields and submerged his crops in the district of Dharashiv in the western state of Maharashtra.

Related: India and Canada agree on new roadmap for relations.

Until then, the soybean crop had been thriving, and farmers were readying for harvest.

The reduction in yields from excessive rainfall is likely to halve agricultural growth to three per cent to 3.5 per cent in the December quarter, down from 6.6 per cent a year earlier, said Garima Kapoor, economist at Mumbai-based Elara Securities.

Summer-sown crops such as soybean, cotton, rice, pulses and vegetables mature from September, a month that saw rains of 15 per cent above average this year, with some regions getting as much as 115 per cent more than normal.

While agriculture contributes just 18 per cent to India’s economy of nearly US$4 trillion, almost half its population of 1.4 billion relies on farming to earn a living.

No respite from rain

Now farmers are scrambling to harvest summer crops ahead of winter sowing set to begin next month, but more untimely rain forecast this week could delay planting and damage late-maturing summer crops.

The rain-damaged crops are earning prices well below the government’s minimum support price, as quality has deteriorated.

“Traders are buying the damaged crops for throwaway prices, and we have no choice but to sell,” said farmer Sachin Nanaware, who sold his soybean at a rate of 3,200 rupees ($50.62) for 100 kg, below the government-fixed rate of 5,328 rupees.

Nanaware said he had hoped to buy a motorcycle and a television, but is now worried about repaying his bank loan.

The excessive rain has boosted soil moisture for winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpea, but many farmers say they lack funds for seeds and fertilisers.

“We need money to buy seeds and fertilisers and to prepare the land,” said farmer Chaya Jawale as she collected cotton bolls brought down from plants prematurely by the rain.

“So, we have no choice but to mortgage our gold jewellery.”

Damage to soybean and cotton crops is expected to boost India’s vegetable oil imports in the marketing year from November by 1.5 million tons to a record 18 million, says industry analyst Thomas Mielke of Oil World.

— Additional reporting by Ira Dugal

The post Monsoon promise turns sour for India’s crops ruined by late downpours appeared first on Grainews.

Farmers in the province have planted 18 per cent of the expected 2025 crop as of May 5, as reported in the province’s first crop report of the season released on May 8. The five-year average at this time of year was 10 per cent, while the 10-year average was 12 per cent. Producers took advantage of dry weather in the final two weeks of April despite storms throughout the rest of the month.

The most rainfall during the week ended May 5 was reported around Alida in the southeast corner of the province at 16 millimetres.

The southwest region was 43 per cent complete, followed by the northwest at 15 per cent, the southeast at 14 per cent, the west-central region at 11 per cent and the east-central and northeast regions at nine per cent.

Saskatchewan’s lentil crop was 34 per cent planted, with durum (33 per cent), triticale (31 per cent) and field peas (31 per cent) not far behind. Chickpeas were 28 per cent planted, while mustard was at 21 per cent. Barley and spring wheat crops were 19 per cent and 13 per cent planted, respectively. Canola was 10 per cent seeded, followed by flax (six per cent), perennial forage (five per cent), canary seed (four per cent), oats (four per cent) and soybeans (less than one per cent).

Topsoil moisture for cropland was rated at three per cent surplus, 78 per cent adequate, 16 per cent short and three per cent very short. Moisture for hayland was reported at one per cent surplus, 71 per cent adequate, 22 per cent short and six per cent very short. Pasture topsoil moisture conditions were reported at one per cent surplus, 68 per cent adequate, 23 per cent short and eight per cent very short.

Spring runoff was reported in late April, with provincial data indicating 30 per cent below normal, 55 per cent normal and 15 per cent above normal. Seventy-six per cent of crop reporters said that the amount of runoff received would be sufficient to replenish dugouts and other water bodies within their area. But 52 per cent of respondents in the southwest region said the amount of runoff may not be sufficient to replenish dugouts within their area.

Six per cent of pastures were in excellent condition in late April, 42 per cent were reported to be in good condition, 36 per cent were reported as fair, 13 per cent were reported as poor, and three per cent were very poor.

The post Saskatchewan Crop Report: Seeding ahead of average pace appeared first on Grainews.

Why it matters: Already battered by tariffs and tariff threats, further trade disruptions threaten serious harm to Canadian farmers.

At the same time, Trump opened another front in a global trade war by slapping 25 per cent secondary tariffs on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, a directive that sent oil prices climbing.

According to Canada Energy Regulator data, Canada does not import oil from Venezuela, though most recent statistics date to 2023.

Not all tariffs coming on April 2

At the White House, Trump told reporters not all the new tariffs would be announced on April 2, and said he may give “a lot of countries” breaks on tariffs. He provided no details.

A White House official declined to say exactly when sector-specific tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals or semiconductor chips would come into effect, noting that was still “TBD (to be determined) and at the president’s discretion.”

The official cautioned against expecting a tariff reprieve, adding, “The president is determined to implement reciprocal tariffs that are very strong. People should expect that.”

Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the administration was narrowing its approach to the broad batch of levies Trump has been saying for weeks would be imposed on April 2 and could delay sector-specific tariffs.

U.S. stocks ended Monday broadly higher on optimism that the tariffs set to be detailed next week may not be as extensive as expected. The S&P 500 index gained nearly 1.8 per cent to close at its highest in more than two weeks.

Meanwhile, Trump said the U.S. would impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and aluminum in “the very near future,” arguing that the U.S. would need all those products in the event of wars or other problems.

“We’ve been ripped off by every country,” Trump said after a meeting of his cabinet, predicting that the expected tariffs would raise “rather astronomical” amounts of money for U.S. coffers, allowing tax rates to remain low or come down.

Which countries are in the crosshairs?

Trump said the April 2 tariffs will mark a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. They are aimed at shrinking a $1.2 trillion global goods trade deficit by raising U.S. levies to levels charged by other countries and counteracting their non-tariff trade barriers. Two senior Trump officials – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett – said last week the administration is expected to focus the April 2 reciprocal tariff news on a narrower set of countries with the biggest trade surpluses and high tariff and non-tariff barriers.

In a request for public comments on reciprocal tariffs, the Office of the United States Trade Representative expressed particular interest in submissions for the largest U.S. trade partners, and those with the highest goods trade surpluses.

USTR named Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Britain and Vietnam as being of particular interest, adding that they cover 88 per cent of total goods trade with the U.S.

— Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Timothy Gardner, David Lawder and Steve Holland

The post Trump auto tariffs are coming, but not all levies will be imposed April 2 appeared first on Grainews.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Friday he would terminate the measure, which many producers cited as one of their top concerns for the 2025 election.

The government will also maintain the increase in the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption limit to $1,250,000 on the sale of small business shares and farming and fishing property, according to a news release.

The government is also pledging it will “introduce legislation affecting the increase in the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption limit in due course.”

“Canada is a country of builders,” said Carney in the release. “Cancelling the hike in capital gains tax will catalyze investment across our communities and incentivize builders, innovators, and entrepreneurs to grow their businesses in Canada, creating more higher paying jobs.”

Many commodity groups in Canada have formally criticized the capital gains tax, specifically the changes to the inclusion rate.

In June, Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) Executive Director Kyle Larkin called on the government “to exempt intergenerational transfers and allow them to be taxed at the original capital gains inclusion rate” after GGC research “revealed that the capital gains inclusion rate changes will increase taxes by 30 per cent on family-run grain farms.”

The Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA) said the change would have a negative impact on farm succession planning.

Acoalition led by the Canadian Canola Growers Association (CCGA) Canadian Cattle Association (CCA) and GGC called on the government to “reverse its decision to administer the proposed capital gains inclusion rate legislation.”

The post Carney cancels capital gains hike appeared first on Grainews.

Through government-backed newspaper Ta Kung Pao, Beijing accused the US of forcing the deal “through despicable means”, and claimed that if this was completed: “The United States will definitely use it for political purposes … China’s shipping and trade there will inevitably be subject to the United States.”

A deep rivalry

CK Hutchison’s decision to sell its ports, which it has operated since 1997, to a US-led buyer came after the US president, Donald Trump, criticised Chinese influence over this strategically vital waterway. In his inaugural address, Trump claimed, falsely, that “China is operating the Panama Canal” and vowed “we’re taking it back”. In fact, data shows that the majority of traffic through the canal goes to or from the US.

This has stoked fears in Beijing that US companies operating ports on the canal will do Washington’s bidding and potentially seek to restrict China’s access. Beijing’s angry response indicates the rivalry between the two great powers is deep and ongoing.

While it is likely that this rivalry will continue to intensify under Trump, the president is unpredictable. Indeed, he sees unpredictability as a virtue – a way to keep advisers and foreign leaders on their toes.

When asked last year whether he would support Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Trump gave his own twist on the longstanding US policy of “strategic ambiguity”, saying: “I don’t want to reveal my cards … I wouldn’t want to give away any negotiating abilities by giving information like that to any reporter.”

This means there are multiple plausible outcomes for the US-China relationship in the second Trump administration.

A challenge to U.S. power

On the one hand, there is a very strong, bipartisan consensus in Washington that China poses a systemic, generational challenge to American power. Whereas Russia is viewed as a disruptor, China is a potential peer competitor that could build a new international order based on Beijing’s preferences and interests.

Since Trump’s first term in office, the US has been aggressively waging a “tech war” on China to limit its technological and military development, by cutting off access to high-end semiconductors designed by US companies.

This was intensified in the Biden years with new sanctions on Chinese tech companies, and the passage of the Chips and Science Act, designed to encourage the return of semiconductor manufacturing to the US. Defensive weapons sales to Taiwan had already been increased in Trump’s first term – and remained at high levels under Joe Biden.

What Biden called “extreme competition” with China has become the main organising principle of US foreign policy. While Republican lawmakers have, so far, been willing to go along with Trump’s diplomacy when it comes to Russia, there is likely to be less tolerance of a similar approach to China.

Unlike other US presidents, Trump does not seem to believe that alliances extend American power in the world – although he does still want the US to be the undisputed number one. In his second inaugural address, he vowed to “build the strongest military the world has ever seen”.

Trump sees China as an economic adversary, one of the reasons for imposing punitive tariffs of 20% on all incoming goods. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own and and has proposed more restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. These are vital components of semiconductors, electric batteries and many weapons – and the global market is dominated by China.

A policy shift?

The US State Department recently signalled a possible shift in policy towards Taiwan, removing the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its fact sheet on Taiwan in February. This irritated Beijing, which sees the island as an integral part of China.

This subtle move away from the US’s longstanding “One China” policy – along with the tariffs and Trump’s hostility to alleged Chinese influence over the Panama Canal – suggests the continuation of a hostile, competitive approach to China.

That said, as Trump’s recent diplomacy with Russia and his comments about absorbing Greenland showed, he is not afraid to upend the established norms of US foreign policy. He enjoys provoking the “globalist” foreign policy establishment. He lauds his own deal-making abilities, and would not want to fight a war with China over Taiwan.

Trump is attracted to “strongman” leaders and claims to have “a great relationship with President Xi”. He achieves his goals by taking maximalist positions (for example, the punitive tariffs) which he uses to extract concessions. At a recent press conference, Trump stated: “I see so many things saying we don’t want China in this country. That’s not right. We want them to invest in the United States. That’s good. That’s a lot of money coming in.”

Dependence on Taiwan

Trump is well aware the US is heavily dependent on imported semiconductors from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) – the world’s leading chip manufacturer – and has repeatedly accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US semiconductor industry. He recently took credit for TSMC’s announcement that it would invest a further US$100 billion (£77 billion) in three chip factories in Arizona, declaring that production of vital semiconductors inside the US was “a matter of national security”.

But it will take years for TSMC’s investments to come to fruition in terms of aiding US self-sufficiency in chip manufacture. In the meantime, it is not out of the question that Trump could seek a deal with China that guarantees US access to imported chips from Taiwan, in return for China absorbing the island peacefully. Given the historic importance of Taiwan to Beijing, this could appeal.

Avoiding war could also be popular with Trump voters who want to put “America first” without getting embroiled in foreign wars. Although the hawkish China consensus is firmly embedded in Washington, its continuation is not guaranteed while the mercurial Trump is at the helm.

—Maria Ryan is an associate professor of U.S. history at the University of Nottingham

The post ANALYSIS: Chinese anger at sale of Panama Canal ports to US investor highlights tensions between the two superpowers appeared first on Grainews.

“As they are waging war with the entire world, they will not make an exception for Brazil. That certainly will not happen,” he told GloboNews TV. “But when we sit at the negotiating table, they will bring up ethanol, and we will bring up sugar.”

Why it matters: Crop powerhouse Brazil expects to be drawn into U.S. trade tensions

When U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his plan to raise import tariffs, details of which are expected in early April, a White House fact sheet on the move cited Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices.

That led Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira to call a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol unreasonable, stressing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together.

Brazil is one of the world’s largest sugar producers and the vast majority of its ethanol also comes from sugarcane, compared to U.S. ethanol made largely with corn.

Brazilian officials often argue that the tariff imposed by the U.S. on sugar imports outside preferential quotas is too high, exceeding Brasilia’s tariff on ethanol imports.

Haddad said the exchange of services with the United States, where it is a major exporter relative to Brazil, could also be a key issue in negotiations.

The minister stressed Brazil’s stance is not to “add fuel to the fire” of the tariff dispute, so it is waiting for the U.S. to outline its approach to bilateral trade.

“Meanwhile, Brazil is reviewing its entire import and export agenda, item by item, so that when we go to the negotiating table, we can also present our demands,” he said, stressing that the approach would be “reciprocity, not retaliation.”

— Reporting by Marcela Ayres

The post Brazil sees prolonged US tariff talks, minister says, linking ethanol and sugar appeared first on Grainews.