The expected reduction comes amid disruptions to global soil-nutrient supply chains triggered by the Middle East conflict and China’s fertilizer export restrictions.

OCP, the world’s top producer of phosphates-based fertilizers, was proceeding “bringing forward planned Q3 and Q4 maintenance activities into the second quarter,” one of the sources told Reuters, requesting anonymity.

The maintenance works have been advanced “as part of normal operational planning and asset optimization, in a context of increased market uncertainty,” the source said.

The output reduction is temporary and OCP does not expect a significant impact on its annual production profile, a second company source said, adding that the expected drop was discussed during a recent investor call.

OCP is particularly exposed to fluctuations in the prices of ammonia and sulphuric acid, two key fertilizer inputs whose supply has been severely affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

OCP’s sulphuric acid imports nearly doubled to $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion) in 2025, driven by higher consumption and prices, while ammonia imports fell nine per cent to $840 million (C$1.17 billion) as production of nitrogen‑based fertilizers declined, according to OCP’s annual report.

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Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth.

The price of urea in Australia was quoted around A$1,350 (C$1,298) per ton this week, up about 60 per cent since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts said. Australian diesel prices are up 88 per cent over the same period.

“Farmers are trying to reduce fertilizer application and switching planting from nitrogen hungry crops like wheat and canola into feed barley,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some are also reducing planted area, but this so far is minimal,” he said.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10 per cent to 12 per cent given the current conditions, from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns, they said. Both declined to be named.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

Straight of Hormuz is fertilizer choke point

Farmers worldwide are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season in key countries gets underway, with the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30 per cent of globally traded fertilizers, severely disrupted by the Iran war.

Bank of America warned that the conflict threatens 65 per cent to 70 per cent of global supplies of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, with prices already up 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. China has curbed fertilizer exports, while India is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies for summer-sown crops.

Corn, wheat and canola usually require higher application of urea than barley and pulses.

“Australia typically relies on China for urea, but export curbs have limited shipments,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

“Buyers turned to Indonesia, only to face further constraints there and by the time they sought supplies from the Middle East, the war had already started and the Strait of Hormuz had closed.”

Crops need fertilizer at the start of planting as well as in development and pre-maturity stages. Crops planted in April and May are harvested in November and December.

“It is a big issue as the cost of farming has risen sharply in the last one month,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney.

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The NL710 is a single-bin fertilizer spreader the Iowa company says is comparable in productivity and profitability to its dual-bin NL720.

“It’s a high-precision, high-output, wide fertilizer spreader that is user-friendly and low-maintenance,” says Benjamin Boelter, director of product development with New Leader.

The machine’s 120-foot spreading capacity is a rarity in the U.S. market, he says, with most manufacturers opting for 90 feet.

“We also increased the throughput … so you don’t have to slow down to get a wider pattern, so we have more material that can go through the machine.”

The applicator features a spread pattern “wizard” that makes automatic output adjustments.

“You don’t have to make manual adjustments on the machine to change the spread pattern. That’s all taken care of internally for you,” says Boelter.

The machine’s variable rate spreading capability includes four options: 120, 90, 80 and 70 feet.

Boelter uses turn compensation as an example of its variable-rate capabilities — say, when “spreading on the left hand side of the spreader needs more material than the right hand side. Our machine can adjust for that,” he says.

“As you spread with VRT, as you’re going through the field and your rates are changing and your speed is changing, the amount of product dropping on your spinner is changing. So we have built into our software (the ability to) make the adjustments as you’re going through those rates to keep your spread pattern at a very good precision.”

According to the company, the NL710 also features:

• A 33 per cent more efficient high-output design.
• Uniform spread pattern with advanced swath width control.
• Tool-free maintenance and zero grease points for reduced downtime.
• Ability to pattern test and set the machine using only three pans.

The applicator was designed for productivity, efficiency and low maintenance, says Boelter, but the fundamental goal was simplicity.

“We tried to make it very simple for the operator to use. So one of the, I would say, most unexpected things from an operator standpoint is we added a lot of capability, but it’s actually easier to use from a control standpoint than what’s in the field today.”

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The cumulative value of those outstanding shares determines the overall value or market capitalization of a company. Of course, those numbers change daily as share prices rise and fall with normal market fluctuations.

WHY IT MATTERS: While Fortune 500-level companies are typically somewhat better insulated against market shocks, reduced market cap can make it more difficult for publicly traded firms to obtain favourable credit or raise capital through share offerings.

Those fluctuations are the result of profits each company reports and the outlook on their future fortunes along with the condition of the overall economy.

In recent days, however, there is another consideration to factor into those market trends: the war in Iran. That gambit, initiated by the Trump administration and Israel’s leadership, has roiled markets around the world.

The U.S. Dow Jones had been riding pretty high despite a global economy upended by U.S. tariff policy.

The Dow had reached a yearly high average on Feb. 10 of more than 50,000. However, the Middle East war cratered it, causing the average to drop to slightly more than 46,000 by March 25. Almost every other market around the world saw significant declines as well.

At the same time, oil prices have reached higher than US$100 per barrel as global supply is choked down by roughly 20 per cent due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting urea fertilizer prices as well.

All of this has affected the input costs farmers will face this year, but it has also had a negative impact on the market value of farm machinery manufacturers.

As their profitability and share prices were starting to rise from a low point in the cyclical equipment demand cycle, the stock market declines have caused significant reductions in the valuation of those companies.

Here’s a look at just how much the market capitalization of those brands had fallen from mid-February to late March:

• John Deere shares peaked just before the war on Feb. 24 at US$664. By March 25, those share values had dropped $82. With about 270.1 million shares outstanding, that represents a market capitalization loss of roughly $22 billion.
• Agco shares peaked Feb. 13, and by March 25 had seen a $1.7 billion valuation reduction.
• CNH Industrial, parent company of Case IH and New Holland, realized a $2.5 billion decline.
• In the automotive sector, the story is the same. For example, Ford saw its market value decline by more than $8 billion.

The situation is the same for nearly all publicly traded companies listed on many different stock exchanges around the world, meaning globally, companies collectively have probably lost trillions of dollars in market value, at least temporarily.

At the same time, financial analysts are sounding the alarm over the possibility of insider trading on the U.S. stock market related to government announcements, with unusual trading patterns observed that could have netted millions for unidentified entities just minutes before a White House announcement.

More than a few analysts are now questioning the integrity of the U.S. stock market as a result. Since the current administration took office, the ability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to prosecute violations has reportedly been significantly reduced.

This comes at a time when foreign investment in U.S. government treasury bonds is declining, reportedly due to a lack of confidence in the administration. Those bonds help finance the government’s deficit. Without continued investment, the U.S. treasury will find itself in a bind.

Add to that the recent increase in global oil trades conducted in yuan, rather than the standard U.S. dollar transaction, which came to be known as the petro-dollar.

The so-called petro-dollar has helped prop up demand for U.S. currency for decades. That has been an economic boon for the United States, but the continued decline in U.S.-dollar oil transactions would lead to significantly reduced demand for greenbacks.

As a lack of confidence in the U.S. among investors, trading partners and allies grows, there could be a very rocky road ahead for the U.S. economy, and the valuations of U.S.-based corporations could continue to take a beating.

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Fertilizer shortages may lead to lower grain output through delayed or suboptimal nitrogen application and encourage farmers to plant less fertilizer-intensive crops such as soybeans, the report noted.

In the U.S., where farmers import up to 50 per cent of urea fertilizer in some years, spring planting could face challenges as supplies remain around 25 per cent below typical levels, according to The Fertilizer Institute.

WHY IT MATTERS: Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen around 40 per cent since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, intensifying financial pressure on farmers

Nitrogen fertilizer, which accounts for roughly 20 per cent of grain production costs, has seen prices rise 40 per cent since the onset of the conflict, Goldman said. A quarter of global nitrogen trade and about 20 per cent of LNG shipments — key for nitrogen production — transit the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked since the war in Iran started.

Supply disruptions could tighten availability and increase production costs elsewhere, the bank warned.

“Spare fertilizer production capacity outside the Middle East appears limited,” Goldman added, citing production constraints in Russia, which typically accounts for around 15 per cent of global nitrogen fertilizer exports due to facility attacks and export limits, as well as China’s likely extension of fertilizer export restrictions beyond August.

While U.S. farmers remain relatively insulated for now due to advanced procurement ahead of planting season, disruptions in Europe, Australia and the Southern Hemisphere could bolster demand for U.S. grain exports and raise U.S. grain prices, the bank said.

However, delays to March fertilizer shipments might affect April availability, compounded by the lack of U.S. strategic reserves or quick domestic production scalability.

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Russia, a major fertilizer exporter, lacks the capacity to boost production this year amid a global supply crunch caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 24 per cent of global trade in ammonia, an ingredient of ammonium nitrate, passes.

WHY IT MATTERS: Russia controls up to 40 per cent of the global trade in ammonium nitrate. While Canada’s imports of Russian nitrogen fertilizer halted due to economic sanctions, at least one agriculture group has argued the federal government should lift tariffs in order to ease strain on Canadian farmers.

The Agriculture Ministry said it had stopped all issued licenses for ammonium nitrate exports and will not issue new ones, with the exception of those pertaining to government contracts. Russia produces a quarter of the world’s ammonium nitrate.

“In the context of growing export demand for nitrogen fertilizers, the suspension of their supply abroad will allow the needs of the domestic market to be prioritized during the spring fieldwork season,” the ministry said.

Start of planting season

Ammonium nitrate is extensively used in agriculture at the start of the planting season. Russia has had export caps in place since 2021, while producers have been asked by the government to prioritize supplies to the domestic market over exports.

Russia exports ammonium nitrate to Brazil, India, Peru, Mongolia, Morocco, and Mozambique. It also exported a small quantity of ammonium nitrate to the U.S. in 2024.

Eurochem, Acron and Uralchem are Russia’s leading producers of ammonium nitrate.

Ukrainian drones in February hit the Dorogobuzh plant in Western Russia, Acron’s leading production asset, which makes about 11 per cent of Russia’s ammonium nitrate. The plant is not expected to be fully operational before May.

Ammonium nitrate is also used in the production of explosives.

— Reporting by Gleb Bryanski, Olga Popova and Anastasia Lyrchikova

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The farm lender maintained its prediction that GDP growth would slow to around one per cent.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted the flow of oil and gas from the region, has pushed commodity prices to multi-year highs, FCC economist Krishen Rangasamy wrote in a March 18 report.

Pros and cons

The jump in prices could spell opportunity for Canada, Rangasamy said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Higher fuel and fertilizer prices for farmers today could be followed by higher borrowing costs in the future if core inflation persists.

“Given its high historical correlation with commodity prices, nominal GDP (which matters for government revenues) is likely to also perk up.”

If commodity prices stay high, the federal government and governments in resource-rich provinces such as Alberta or Newfoundland and Labrador could see higher revenues. That doesn’t mean governments will spend more, Rangasamy said, but there’s potential for a spending-related GDP boost.

However, fertilizer prices are among those surging due to the conflict which is weighing on the ag sector. Higher prices for fuel can also push up inflation and erode consumers’ buying power.

Trade war damages

Last year, Canada’s economy saw the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic recession — growing just 1.7 per cent, Rangasamy wrote. Export volumes fell on an annual basis for the first time in five years.

Government and consumption spending offset weaknesses in housing and business investment. However, based on a slumping household savings rate, consumers also dipped into savings to maintain lifestyles. This means Canadians have little cushion to absorb future shocks.

“With no end in sight to America’s trade war … look for trade and business investment to act as a drag on Canada’s economy again in 2026,” Rangasamy said.

Government and consumption spending may not provide as much of an offset this time. Rangasamy noted the government has telegraphed caution related to public spending. While ambitious public projects are in the works, that spending isn’t expected this year.

Interest rates and the loonie

If commodity prices stay high long enough, businesses may be forced to raise prices which could lead workers to demand higher wages.

“That could potentially trigger a wage-price spiral,” said Rangasamy.

The Bank of Canada could pre-emptively raise interest rates to prevent core inflation from taking off. However, he predicted the bank would stay in “pause mode” for several months.

FCC predicted the Canadian dollar would trade in the 72- to 74-U.S. cent range for most of the year, but acknowledged currency volatility could temporarily take it outside that range.

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“Which is not sustainable,” the organization said in a statement to Glacier FarmMedia. 

“Access to additional credit does not address the underlying issue.”

FCC announced it would extend its Trade Disruption Customer Support Program, originally established in early 2025 in response to tariffs. Agriculture and food borrowers will be able to receive a new or additional credit line of up to $500,000 to modify terms and to defer principal payments on existing loans.

FCC will now also provide support to help producers and agribusinesses “manage financial pressures caused by unexpected market shocks,” Friday’s statement said.

Middle east conflict spikes input prices

Fertilizer prices have soared since the Iran war began at the end of February and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping, disrupting urea and sulphur supplies from the Gulf.

As a result, farmers around the world are struggling with fertilizer costs as the northern hemisphere spring planting season approaches.

“I would be faced with financial stress and I would have to maybe not buy as much fertilizer, or I would not plant what I was supposed to plant,” said FCC chief economist J.P. Gervais. “The liquidity in the credit is to actually, hopefully help businesses not having to deviate from what they believe is in their best interest long-term.”

Looking for immediate action

Grain Growers of Canada argues that the federal government should reduce farmers’ costs by dropping fertilizer tariffs.

Canada placed 35 per cent tariffs on Russian fertilizer levied in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. That tariff stopped imports of Russian urea, which had previously made up more than 63 per cent of Canadian imports according to a 2025 report from Grain Farmers of Ontario.

“Canada should also explore targeted, temporary support tied to fertilizer affordability, activated during periods of extreme price volatility, to provide a short-term safety net for farmers while longer-term solutions are implemented,” Grain Growers of Canada said.

-With files from Reuters

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China is among the largest fertilizer exporters – shipping more than $13 billion (C$17.8 billion) worth of it last year – and it has a history of controlling exports to keep prices low for farmers.

Shipments through the war-blocked Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-third of the sea-borne supply. In mid-March, Beijing banned exports of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends and certain phosphate varieties, sources told Reuters.

WHY IT MATTERS: International urea prices have risen by around 40 per cent from pre-war levels as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocks roughly one third of the supply and contributes to higher production costs.

The ban, which has not been formally unveiled, was reported earlier this week by Bloomberg News.

Added to existing bans and export quotas for urea, only a handful of fertilizers – notably ammonium sulphate – can be exported, five sources said. That would mean between half and three quarters of China’s exports last year are restricted, potentially up to 40 million metric tons, according to a Reuters estimate.

“This pattern is consistent: China restricts supplies rather than coming to the rescue during global tightness,” said Matthew Biggin, a senior commodities analyst at BMI.

“The export restrictions exist because of their tight domestic balance – they’re prioritising food security and insulating their domestic market from price shocks.”

Beijing’s curbs, like its move last week to ban refined fuel exports, come as governments limit exports of products whose inputs have been threatened by disruption from the war, worsening shortages and higher prices around the world.

International urea prices have risen by around 40 per cent from pre-war levels. In China, urea futures are near a 10-month high.

Dependent on China

Last year, China sent Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand roughly a fifth of their fertilizer imports and that figure stood at a third for Malaysia and New Zealand, according to International Trade Centre data. For India, it was around 16 per cent, according to its trade data.

Between half and 80 per cent of those exports are now restricted, according to a Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data.

“Buyers were hoping China would step in and fill the supply gap, but this decision will only tighten supplies further,” a New Delhi-based fertilizer company official said, in reference to the recent restrictions.

The company official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

India, which imported more than 40 per cent of its urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, and DAP, a blend, from the Middle East last year, has requested China issue export quotas for urea.

When will exports resume?

The Philippines on Wednesday said China had assured it that fertilizer exports would not be restricted.

Asked about the comments a day later, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson referred the question to other departments.

China’s General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

At a fertilizer conference in Shanghai attended by Reuters on Wednesday, five salespeople said they did not expect the fertilizer bans to be lifted before August, after China’s peak June-to-August export period.

Producers are watching for signals from the government after spring planting to see whether bans would be extended.

In December, the state-linked fertilizer association urged major producers to suspend exports of phosphate fertilizers until August.

“Most folks who follow this very, very closely are expecting them to continue to extend the export bans,” said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“China is so reluctant to do anything that would increase the price of grains, especially animal feed, domestically.”

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Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne made the announcement March 17.

“Agriculture is without a doubt one of the most important and investable sectors in our economy,” said federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald in a news release.

“The pace of technological advancement we’ve seen across the industry in recent years has been impressive, and investments like this will continue to accelerate innovation.”

The federal cash is part of an $50 million equity commitment alongside Idealist Capital to support the next phase of Solugen’s growth and commercial expansion.

Solugen produces and commercializes Azogen, a fast-release liquid ammoniacal nitrogen fertilizer derived from hog manure.

The investment will allow Solugen to expand capacity at its existing plant in St-Patrice-de-Beaurivage, Que. and construct a second facility in the province.

Solugen was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Lévis, Que. Its Azogen is produced through a fully circular process. By converting manure into high-performance fertilizer, it reduces greenhouse gas emissions associated with conventional fertilizers, the news release said.

The funding comes through the Canada Growth Fund, a $15 billion, arm’s length public investment vehicle launched by the federal government to attract private capital and invest in Canadian projects and businesses.

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