“And very mixed in the direction they’re going,” Leclerc added.

She said some in the industry are saying the feedlots are full and feed prices are coming down, while other people indicated prices are largely unchanged.

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Leclerc said elevator prices are flat as well, but wheat prices have been pointing upward. That should lead to higher prices for feed wheat.

“They’re going to have to eventually buy it at a level where its comparable to where you can sell it elsewhere,” she said.

Feed prices were steady to higher across Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

For the week ended April 1, feed barley gained seven cents in Alberta at C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel delivered and it added four cents in Manitoba at C$4.60 to C$4.75. Prices in Saskatchewan were unchanged at C$5.12 to C$5.45 bu./del.

As for feed wheat, prices were firmer, with the only increase in Manitoba of five cents at C$6.32 bu./del. Alberta was steady at C$5.97 to C$8.41 bu./del. and Saskatchewan held at C$7.30.

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This extends the $250,000 limit, which was set in March 2025.

Producers can receive an additional $250,000 interest free on canola only for a total of $500,000.

“By increasing the interest-free portion of the Advance Payments Program, we’re helping farmers manage costs, while giving them more flexibility to market their products on their terms,” Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Heath MacDonald said in an April 1 news release.

The program offers up to $1 million to Canadian farmers based on the expected value of their agricultural products. Twenty-four industry groups across Canada deliver the program.

The Canadian Federation of Agriculture praised the extension of the $250,000 interest-free limit.

“Maintaining the $250,000 interest free portion reflects the realities farmers are facing today,” said CFA president Keith Currie.

“We are seeing continued volatility in input costs, supply chains and global markets, and this type of support is important in helping farmers navigate those pressures.”

“We look forward to continuing to work with government to secure a permanent increase to the interest free portion of the program, so that producers have the predictability they need to make informed business decisions in an increasingly complex operating environment,” he added.

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The loonie also gave up more than 9/10ths of a cent, making wheat and durum more appealing to export customers.

Canadian Western Red Spring

Average CWRS (13.5 per cent) prices advanced C$14.60 to C$25.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Prices ranged from about C$278.10 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$304.70 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$36.20 to C$62.70 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar-denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

CWRS basis levels

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7174), CWRS bids ranged from US$199.50 to US$218.60 per tonne. That would put the currency-adjusted basis levels at about US$23.40 to US$42.40 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$16.80 to C$30.50 below the futures.

Canadian Prairie Spring Red

Average CPRS (11.5 per cent) wheat prices increased C$15.90 to C$17.30 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$252.60 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$281.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Canadian Western Amber Durum

Average CWAD prices were up more moderately, adding 40 cents to C$1.50 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$282.20 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$296.90 per tonne in western Manitoba.

U.S. wheat complex

The May spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.5850 per bushel on March 31, advancing 27.25 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The May Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$6.3550 per bushel on March 31, jumping 31.50 cents.

The May Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$6.1625 per bushel March 31, gaining 26.25 cents.

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“I saw firsthand all of the stress points at that huge hub and that’s certainly, I think, going to be an important priority for the Grain Growers,” said Bruce Burrows.

Burrows, who stepped into the executive director role on April 1, previously worked as president and CEO of the Chamber of Marine Commerce and as vice president and acting president and CEO of the Railway Association of Canada.

WHY IT MATTERS: Grain Growers of Canada is one of the largest national farm organizations in Canada, representing over 100,000 producers through 15 regional groups.

“Given my past roles in both modes, both the marine and rail mode, I’ve got a good deep network,” he said.

He said he sees opportunities to “bring coalition-building to a next level for farmers.”

Burrows also has experience with port infrastructure including the port of Vancouver, a critical exit point for Canadian grain exports. Bottlenecks at that port and other critical infrastructure threaten the sector’s reliability, so it must have a good relationship with the ports and railways in the west.

“We know the canola story well with China, which is a Vancouver story,” Burrows said, “but there are lots of other Asian markets beyond China, which I think the sector wants to target for growth. And that’s very much a West Coast story.”

He said he saw other transport opportunities in places like Thunder Bay.

Consulting and advocacy

Burrows also brings experience in government relations and international trade policy through his work with Tactix Government Relations and BurCan Consulting. He said one of his goals will be to build on the GGC’s reputation to strengthen government relations.

“Fine-tuning our advocacy skills is really critical in the consulting world,” he said. “I’ve learned a few tricks of the trade.”

Burrows looked forward to upcoming trade trips, particularly to the U.S., which he said will be critical.

“If there are some interesting missions that need to be organized, I’ve been part of those things before and (would) be willing to be part of them again.”

“Global trading relations come and go, politicians come and go, but geography doesn’t change,” he said. “So, that U.S.-Canadian relationship is going to be first and foremost.”

He also called Global Affairs Canada and the Trade Commissioner Service underused resources and said he was open to working with them.

Burrows said his first priority in his new role would be to listen.

“I’m going to be in intense learning mode for some time,” he said. “I know I have to walk the field before I start plowing it.”

Burrows said he’s interested to tour farm tours in Western Canada and to meet with farmers one on one.

Grain as a “superpower product”

He said he hopes to encourage the federal government to recognize grain’s importance.

Canada has significant market share in wheat, canola and pulse crops.

“From a broader policy perspective, I’ll be focusing on this so that the federal government understands that opportunity to ensure that grain is considered a Canadian superpower product.”

Burrows said he feels he is entering the sector at a pivotal time as Canada begins to recognize agriculture’s role as more than a basic resource.

“So, how do we leverage this moment?” he said. “I think that’s what’s really driving me, in terms of my interest getting into the role.”

“I think we can step up our game and really demonstrate… how critically important we are in terms of supporting the commitments of Canada going forward.”

Other priorities Burrows listed for his time in the role included:

• Ensuring Canadian grain is considered in the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.
• Engaging in labour issues and modernizing labour rules for a more predictable supply chain while respecting collective bargaining agreements.
• Finding ways to use precision agriculture technology to drive productivity and climate resiliency.
• Ensuring the movement of bulk resources at Canadian ports is recognized.

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The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.

USDA forecasts seeded acres for 2026/27

The USDA predicted corn planting intentions at 95.34 million acres, which is down from 98.79 million acres U.S. farmers seeded last year, but less than the market projection of 94.37 million.

The shift away from corn to soybeans was not as large as the trade believed there was going to be.

“That was the big conversation, how many corn acres there was going to be, especially with the beans this year,” said Ryan Etnner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Illinois.

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The report placed soybean acres at 84.70 million, up from 81.22 million last year, but short of the market projection of 85.55 million.

Ettner said the total wheat acres caught his eye, with how close the USDA was to the trade guess. The department placed its forecast at 43.78 million acres and trade called for 44.79 million. Last year, farmers planted 45.33 million acres of wheat.

Fertilizer issues could be down the road

The broker added that rising fertilizer prices did not have as great an effect on the switch from corn to soybeans. He said most U.S. farmers apply their fertilizer in the fall and what will go on the fields this spring was largely bought before the Middle East war.

“The bigger concern is fall of this year, if things don’t calm down over there by that point,” Ettner said. “Most people are assuming this is a larger 2027 issue if the war is still going on by the fall.”

USDA Planting Intentions (Millions of acres)

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

Grain stocks

As for grain stocks as of March 1, Ettner said there was some pre-report speculation that total corn could be as high as 9.30 billion bushels.

“The quarterly stocks all came in line. The one concern was ‘what if corn had come in bigger?’ and it didn’t,” Ettner said.

He added that corn stocks were going to be very large simply because of the size of the 2025/26 harvest.

USDA Grain Stocks as of March 1 (Billions of bushels)

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Soybean seedings, meanwhile, are expected to jump as some growers shift acres away from corn and wheat, which require more costly fertilizer, they said.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike. The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by President Donald Trump’s administration with the top soy importer.

U.S. net farm income

Meanwhile, U.S. net farm income is forecast to turn lower this year despite near-record government payments, marking the fourth straight year of crop producers facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices.

The Trump administration is in the process of distributing $12 billion (C$16.6 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers. As the repercussions of the war rattle the broader economy, farm groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its annual prospective plantings report on Tuesday, its first survey-based crop acreage estimate of the year. Analysts cautioned that the estimates, gleaned from farmer surveys conducted in the first half of March, could not fully account for disruptions and price impacts caused by the war, which began when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes across Iran on February 28.

“This particular planting intentions report, right out of the gates, is going to be viewed somewhat skeptically by the trade just because of the timing of the survey with the start of the war and how things have changed in terms of costs,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, projected corn plantings to drop to 94.371 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, which was the most since 1936. Soybean seedings were seen at 85.549 million acres, up from 81.215 million a year ago.

Wheat plantings expected to fall

Plantings of spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains, are forecast to drop to 9.843 million acres, down from 9.990 million last year and the lowest since 1970. Prices for the high-protein grain have slumped since a record Canadian harvest last year.

Farmers in the U.S. Midwest farm belt normally rotate their fields with corn one year and soybeans the next, but profit projections and input costs can prompt farmers to deviate from their crop rotations in some fields.

“The fertilizer cost and fertilizer availability are the main drivers right now,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale. “But I would point out that we have questions about whether the USDA’s report will show the true story.”

Prices for urea fertilizer are up about 40 per cent since the start of the war while costs for anhydrous ammonia are up nearly 20 per cent, according to a report this week from economists at the University of Illinois.

“Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could also lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres,” they said.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins this month estimated that about 75 per cent of farmers already had their fertilizer needs booked.

Hunt for alternatives

The hunt is on for alternatives that would insulate farmers from price volatility tied to natural gas in fertilizer markets, and be less carbon-intensive.

While natural gas powers the process of synthesizing most widely used ammonia fertilizers, there are efforts to power more ammonia production with renewable energy.

In Minnesota for example, a coalition of agriculture and conservation organizations launched the Minnesota Made Ammonia project on March 5 to build local ammonia production facilities in Minnesota that use renewable energy, according to a statement from the group.

Outside of the heart of the Midwest corn and soybean belt, farmers have more planting options, including hard red spring wheat, durum wheat, canola and cotton, analysts said.

Demand for biofuels swells

In North Dakota, the top spring wheat state and a key supplier of soybeans that are shipped to China via Pacific Northwest ports, rising fertilizer costs and trade uncertainty are likely to prompt some farmers to choose corn or canola over soybeans and wheat, analysts said.

The price of urea fertilizer has jumped at least $200 per ton since the start of the war, according to Jim Peterson, executive director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“On a 50 bushel (per acre) wheat yield, you need another 40 or 50 cents a bushel to just cover that cost,” Peterson said.

Canola, grown in the northern Plains and in Canada, is also a viable option despite high fertilizer costs due to strong demand for vegetable oil for biofuel production. Demand for biofuels has swelled amid rising prices for petroleum-based fuels.

In the Delta, low cotton prices and costly inputs are likely to lead to the lowest cotton plantings in a decade as farmers may choose more profitable soybeans instead.

“If we go through the rest of March and into April with soybeans looking this much stronger than cotton, then, yes, we’ll see more acres move from cotton to soybeans,” said Barry Bean, president of Bean & Bean Cotton Company.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

— Additional reporting by Ed White in Winnipeg, Renee Hickman in Chicago and Anmol Choubey in Bangalore

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Some 20 miles away, at a research center in Junction City, scientists are developing hybrid wheat seeds that promise higher, more consistent crop yields as drought becomes more common across the Plains.

Taken together, the experiments could change the future of the struggling U.S. wheat industry, which is being threatened by shifting consumer trends and the rise of lower-cost global rivals eroding America’s export dominance. The U.S. economic prospects for wheat, a crop that’s been cultivated for 10,000 years, hang in the balance.

Wheat not ‘technified’

When it comes to technology, for decades wheat has been the horse-and-buggy to its sports car brethren, corn and soybeans. And American farmers have been growing less of the crop, sometimes planting it only in rotation with other crops to preserve soil health.

But hybrid wheat is finally becoming more widely available, and genetically modified varieties may launch in the U.S. within a few years. The push represents a bet that the science will arrive in time to make it profitable enough to matter for growers.

“Wheat hasn’t been, for lack of a better word, a technified crop,” said Jon Rich, Syngenta’s hybrid wheat operations head, who has spent years developing the product.

Wheat buyers have been more resistant to GMO wheat due in part to consumer skepticism, while most GMO corn and soybeans are used as feed for animals.

Shrinking demand

Once the world’s top wheat exporter, the U.S. has not held that title since 2017, according to federal data. Farmers are grappling with a three-decade downtrend in per-capita flour consumption, a trend reinforced by the Trump administration’s new federal dietary guidelines and the rise of gluten-free diets.

Things are trending differently in Canada, where mills produced 2.68 million tonnes of wheat flour in 2025, a 7.7 per cent increase over 2024 levels.

Wheat industry millers and scientists who gathered for an annual meeting last month in Olathe, Kansas, said the new guidelines stigmatize grain-based foods, further diminishing the market.

“The fact that we are having to say ‘bread is real food’ – it’s unfortunate,” said Jane DeMarchi, president of the North American Millers’ Association.

The United States became a corn-growing behemoth in part due to an early 20th-century breakthrough that has eluded wheat: hybrid seeds, which yield more grain even under stressful conditions such as drought. Average U.S. corn yields rose from around 25 bushels an acre in the 1930s to 186.5 bushels in 2025.

Corteva says it ‘cracked the code’ on hybrid wheat

Creating a hybrid wheat seed isn’t as simple. The seeds and plants are much smaller than corn and have more complex genetics, making hybridization efforts costly for companies to develop and sell.

But recent scientific advances in DNA sequencing have lowered costs for breeders, triggering a boom in research and commercialization efforts. Seed and chemical companies Syngenta and Corteva are pushing forward in the U.S., projecting billion-dollar payouts – eventually.

Chuck Magro, Corteva’s chief executive, says the company has “cracked the code,” and that its hybrid hard red winter wheat used to make bread can increase crop yields by 20 per cent. Corteva plans to release the seed commercially in the U.S. in 2027.

Syngenta, the Swiss agrichemicals and seeds group of China’s state-owned Sinochem, has been selling hybrid spring wheat seed to farmers in the northern Plains states since 2023, reaching 12,000 to 15,000 acres in 2025. Still, that’s a fraction of the 45 million U.S. wheat acres seeded annually.

Syngenta and Corteva also are working on other hybrids, including for soft wheat used in pastries and Asian-style noodles, in coming years. But it’s a gamble if farmers will be willing to pay for seeds that can cost twice as much as conventional offerings.

GMO crops

The vast majority of U.S. corn and soybeans are grown from genetically modified seeds that offer built-in herbicide tolerance and resistance to yield-robbing pests. That is one hope for wheat too, scientists said, and GMO technology could eventually offer traits that boost nutrition or grain quality, too.

“Anything that gives our producers an advantage can improve profitability – that would be welcome,” said Allan Fritz, a longtime wheat breeder with Kansas State University.

The plants in the Manhattan, Kansas, lab have been genetically modified with a drought-resistant trait known as HB4, developed by Argentina’s Bioceres Crop Solutions, and bred to tolerate a particular herbicide not currently used on wheat. While that grain was approved for U.S. production by the USDA in 2024, none has been planted on U.S. fields.

Genetic lines of wheat vary by region, so public university researchers are testing whether the HB4 traits will function in wheat grown in the U.S. Plains. Field trials are still at least two years away, according to Brad Erker of the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation, a farmer-governed trade group that has partnered with Bioceres to commercialize HB4 in the U.S.

Selling GMO wheat seed is even further off, by 2030 or 2032 at the earliest, Erker said, and will only occur if major buyers of U.S. wheat, such as Japan and Mexico, agree to allow purchases.

“That’s part of the goal with this, to make it more attractive to grow wheat,” said Erker. “We don’t have GMO technology for our farmers in wheat, and corn and soy and sunflowers and sugarbeets and cotton all do.”

—With files from Glacier FarmMedia

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In its first projections for the 2026 harvest, MARS also forecast the EU’s average rapeseed yield at 3.22 t/ha, down three per cent from last year, while for winter barley it put the EU 2026 yield at 5.13 t/ha, ten per cent lower than last year.

Soft wheat is the EU’s most‑produced cereal and rapeseed its main oilseed. Other forecasters also expect lower wheat and rapeseed yields in the EU this year after bumper crops last summer.

Winter crops across Europe were gradually restarting vegetative growth in generally favourable conditions, supported by adequate soil moisture and mild late-winter temperatures, MARS said in a report.

Excessive rainfall in parts of south-western and eastern Europe caused temporary waterlogging and local flooding, while severe February frost episodes may have caused local damage in parts of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states, it said.

Emerging precipitation deficits in north‑eastern Europe required monitoring as crops’ water needs will be increasing soon, it added.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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“The markets (in 2022) were telling farmers to plant every acre that they could,” Lilja said. “The Russian-Ukraine war has been in a heavy agricultural producing area.”

“That spring, we were just coming off of a South American drought. Supplies of soybeans, corn and wheat were historically on the low side,” he added, noting there were a number of limit up days in the commodities, especially for wheat.

Today, Lilja said the situation is different, despite the hikes in soybeans, corn and wheat. There hasn’t been any limit up days.

“You can argue the view from South America right now, they have come off record yields,” he said.

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For 2025/26 soybeans, Brazil is on its way to another record harvest that’s to be about 180 million tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Plus, Brazil is to have strong corn yields that are to produce a crop of around 132 million tonnes. Also, Argentina had a record wheat harvest of about 27.8 million tonnes.

As well, Iran isn’t as a major wheat producer that Russia and Ukraine are. Lilja said the latter two countries combined will provide about 108 million tonnes of wheat, while Iran’s production is maybe one-tenth of that.

Added to that, the U.S. situation is much different between 2022 and 2026. Lilja said U.S. wheat ending stocks four years ago were in a range of 570 million to 670 million bushels. The USDA has forecasted the 2025/26 carryover at 931 million bushels.

“We just haven’t seen the huge price spike that we saw back in February and March of 2022,” he said, but stressed the commodities are still following the increases in crude oil.

“The night crude oil spiked up (March 15-16) was the recent highs for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat,” he continued.

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