PotashCorp sees gradual recovery in 2013

PotashCorp of Saskatchewan forecast a modest rebound in earnings for 2013, with key importers in China and eventually India resuming purchases of the crop nutrient potash, but the company’s recovery will be more gradual than expected.

PotashCorp, the world’s biggest fertilizer company, reported a surprisingly large drop in fourth-quarter profit on Thursday and gave a first-quarter outlook below Wall Street’s forecast. Analysts’ average estimate for all of 2013 was near the high end of Potash’s range.

"My hope is they’re being relatively conservative on the guidance for the full year," said analyst Spencer Churchill of Paradigm Capital. "If we see prices come up, we can start to see results get better."

Potash said it expected a first-quarter profit of 50 cents to 65 cents per share, compared with the analysts’ average estimate of 68 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

For the full year, the company forecast a profit of $2.75 to $3.25 a share. That would be an improvement over a disappointing 2012, when Potash earned just $2.37, while the analysts’ average 2013 view was $3.18.

A pause in potash buying by Chinese and Indian importers weighed on the company during the last two quarters.

Canpotex, which makes offshore potash sales on behalf of PotashCorp, Mosaic Co. and Agrium, announced a six-month supply deal with a subsidiary of China’s Sinofert Holdings Ltd on Dec. 31, at a larger-than-expected price discount and volume.

Indian potash importers remain on the sidelines.

PotashCorp has idled several of its Saskatchewan mines as North American stocks built up due to limited off-shore sales. Even with the expected rebound in potash demand, the company said it would need to increase downtime this year.

Those shutdowns look to weigh down the current first quarter and push the bulk of PotashCorp’s recovery to later in the year, said analyst Mark Gulley of BGC Financial LP.

Following Canpotex’s China deal, PotashCorp said it was seeing increased demand from most major markets. The company forecast global potash shipments of 55 million to 57 million tonnes industry-wide, well above 51 million tonnes in 2012, but down slightly from its November outlook.

PotashCorp said it expected continued challenges from India because of weaker demand from farmers due to high prices caused by lower government subsidies and a softer currency.

The company reported a bigger-than-expected 38 per cent drop in quarterly profit on Thursday.

Net income for the company’s fourth quarter fell to $421 million, or 48 cents per share, from $683 million, or 78 cents per share, a year earlier. The results include a charge of four cents per share for settling U.S. antitrust claims.

Analysts on average had expected Potash to earn 58 cents per share.

"Our fourth-quarter results were adversely affected by weaker performance in all three nutrients as global fertilizer markets paused in the absence of significant immediate needs and amid lack of direction, particularly in phosphate and potash," said PotashCorp CEO Bill Doyle.

Fourth-quarter potash sales dropped 17 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes, despite an increase in North America. Offshore volumes plunged by more than a third, to 700,000 tonnes.

Phosphate prices during the quarter were pressured by weak demand in India. Nitrogen sales were flat, and PotashCorp’s average realized price for that nutrient eased slightly.

– Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent in Winnipeg.